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481
FXUS63 KMQT 061855
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
255 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Gusty northerly winds will result in dangerous swimming conditions
in Marquette, Alger, and Luce counties this today.

- Cooler, more seasonable, temperatures return to the Upper
Peninsula for the work week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Afternoon RAP analysis has the weak shortwave over northern Lake
Michigan, with associated mid and upper level cloud cover still
streaming into the eastern Upper Peninsula. However, showers have
moved out, and skies should continue clearing from west to east the
rest of today as a ridge builds in from high pressure centered over
the Canadian Prairies. Temperatures are coming in much cooler than
in previous days, currently hovering in the upper 60s to lower 70s
inland of Lake Superior. Northerly winds have so far kept
temperatures nearer to Superior in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Expect temperatures today to peak in the lower/mid 60s near
Superior, and the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

Gusty northerly winds continue to lead to a potential for dangerous
swimming conditions along the Lake Superior beaches of the north-
central UP. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect. Stay dry
when the waves are high!

Winds turn calmer this evening, with a much cooler night ahead as
temperatures fall into the mid and upper 40s across much of the UP,
and into the lower 50s along the shorelines of the Great Lakes.
Under mostly clear skies, some patchy fog will be possible in the
interior. Otherwise, overnight into Monday, another weak shortwave
currently over the Plains passes through. This may briefly bring a
slight increase in cloud cover, but with soundings showing a very
dry column, no precipitation is expected. Look for highs to range in
the 70s away from Lake Superior, and in the 60s along the
shorelines.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Ridging breaks down Tuesday as a shortwave ejecting out of the
Northern Plains along with a weak frontal boundary, which may
support a quick round of precipitation. While some thunder will be
possible with a few hundred j/kg of MUCAPE and upwards of 30kts of
bulk shear given your model of choice, severe storms are not favored
at this time. This one isn`t much of a significant rainfall threat
either; ensembles show a widespread tenth to quarter-inch of
rainfall, with higher amounts around a half-inch possible in any
heavier downpours. Following this passing shortwave, ensemble and
deterministic guidance continue to show another trough digging into
the Great Lakes Wednesday out ahead of a ridge extending from the
Plains into central Canada. However, soundings are quite dry, so
little more than lingering cloud cover is expected from this
secondary trough.

Afterwards, deterministic and ensemble guidance are in more
agreement on the Plains ridge moving over our region Thursday,
perhaps flattening some into Friday ahead of our next trough/frontal
system moving out of the Canadian Rockies later Friday into the
weekend. This would favor dry weather Thursday at least into early
Friday before chances for showers/storms move back in next weekend.
By Friday afternoon, deterministic and ensemble guidance show a
couple of features (a weak shortwave moving out of the Central
Plains and a deeper trough moving out of the Canadian Prairies)
phasing over the Upper Midwest. PoPs work back into the area Friday
with warm advection out ahead of the system, lingering into Saturday
as the cold front sweeps through. Severe parameters are also
lackluster with this next system, with just a few hundred j/kg of
CAPE and around 20-30kts of bulk shear. Guidance diverges after
Saturday, with some of the guidance showing the system becoming
vertically stacked and meandering over the Great Lakes, and others a
little more progressive. This will keep in at least some low-end
chances for lingering showers/thunder into the end of the forecast
period.

Otherwise, look for temperatures to come in more or less seasonal
through the coming week with highs ranging generally in the 70s and
lows in the 50s. Thursday and Friday are looking like the warmest
days of the week as temperatures in the interior peak in the lower
80s.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Stubborn cloud cover at IWD continues to lead to MVFR ceilings this
afternoon, but clouds are expected to lift over the next couple of
hours. Then, VFR prevails at all terminals through the rest of the
forecast period. There is a potential for some patchy fog in the
interior of the UP early Monday morning, but with a lack in
confidence and coverage, this has been left out of the TAF.
Otherwise, breezy northerly winds turn calmer this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Northerly winds remain elevated this afternoon, gusting between 15-
25 kts - highest towards the southern shores of Lake Superior. There,
waves are coming in at around 3-5ft. Winds and waves will turn calm
overnight into Monday as sfc high pressure becomes planted overtop
the lake. Winds remain below 20kts into the work week.
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&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005>007.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...LC