-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
277
FXUS64 KMRX 070659
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
259 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

1. Cooler and less humid today as high pressure builds into the
area.

Discussion:

A weak front is currently moving through the area, identified by a
wind shift and a dewpoint gradient. Through the day, we will see
falling dewpoints and rising surface pressure behind the exiting
front, with a dry NW flow aloft. A pressure gradient ahead of the
building high may result in winds of 10-15 mph with around 20 mph.
The high will be centered over our area tonight, and winds will
drop to calm.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms return Sunday.

2. Uncertainty is high from Monday onward but low rain chances seem
likely early next week.

Discussion:

Saturday will be dry with high pressure near the surface and a broad
trough from the Great Plains to the Northeast. A ridge is confined
to the Gulf Coast. Highs Saturday will be mainly in the lower 80s.
By Sunday, the broad trough dips southward a bit and a cold front
will move through the region Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms
can be expected on Sunday ahead of the cold front. The GFS suggests
some good deep layer shear around 30 to 40 knots and possibly some
decent instability with CAPE around 1000 J/kg. We will continue to
monitor this system for severe potential. It seems like a few strong
to severe storms will be possible. This looks like a clean frontal
passage with a drop in dew points and a wind shift by Monday
morning.

Early next week, the longwave trough remains over the Eastern U.S. A
shortwave may move through the pattern at some point but models are
not in good agreement on where and when. The GFS still has a wetter
pattern than the Euro early next week. With high uncertainty from
Monday onward, keeping low POPs in the extended forecast seems
appropriate this time of year with this pattern. Early next week,
temps will likely be slightly below normal with highs in the upper
70s and lower 80s. Lows will be in the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through this TAF period. Fog chances
are low overnight due to a light wind, but cannot be ruled out at
TRI. After daybreak, winds will increase and gust up to 20 kt at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  61  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  58  83  66 /   0   0   0  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  58  82  65 /   0   0   0  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  54  79  62 /   0   0   0  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...DGS