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269
FXUS63 KOAX 141846
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
146 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Above-normal temperatures expected to persist through at least
  next week with highs in the 80s.

- Most likely dry through Monday, then periodic chances for
  thunderstorms starting Monday night. Highest chances appear to
  be Wednesday through Friday.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

This afternoon - Sunday:

Clouds are hanging over the area this
afternoon and will be slow to clear. This will help keep
temperatures mild, with highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s
this afternoon. A boundary producing a few storms over central
Nebraska will remain to our west through tomorrow. Southerly
winds and less cloud cover will allow temperatures to rise back
into the mid-to-upper 80s during the afternoon.

Monday - Friday:

The boundary producing scattered storms in central Nebraska has
developed in a region that will see increased diffluent flow
going into Monday. This region will shift east into our western
counties for a 15-20% chance of storms Monday morning. The
diffluent flow starts to fall apart, lowering storm chances by
Monday afternoon with the ridging subtropical jet pushing north
into the area.

The upper-level pattern going through the rest of the week looks
very unsettled with a large upper-level trough over the
Intermountain West, amplifying southwesterly flow starting on
Tuesday. This will mean daily chances for showers and storms.
Later in the week on Thursday we see the merger of the
subtropical and polar jets which may improve dynamic forcing for
a chance of some stronger, more widespread storm chances
Thursday and Friday.

To wrap it up, temperatures will stay above normal next week
with highs in the 80s to near 90 at times. We`ll have daily
chances for storms, with greater chances Wednesday - Friday.
This stormy pattern looks to continue into the weekend
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Patchy fog earlier this morning has lifted into a broken stratus
deck around 1500-2500 feet AGL. This will continue to slowly
lift through early this afternoon, with VFR conditions expected
by around 19Z. Winds remain out of the southeast through the TAF
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy