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481
FXUS64 KOHX 310709
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
209 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

We get to enjoy one more day of really nice dry wx. Highs today
will be warmer as an upper level ridge moves overhead, but
humidity levels will still be nicer than usual for this time of
year. High clouds will thicken through the day as a storm system
moves from the plains to the Ms Valley.

That storm system will move east o the OH/TN Valleys bringing
increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms tonight
and Saturday. The greatest rain chances tonight through Saturday
will be over the west half of our area, but everybody will have
some chance.

Slight strengthening of a surface low pressure center just
northwest of our area will create a tighter pressure gradient,
gusty winds, and adequate wind shear (25-35KT) for a low-end
severe storm risk Saturday afternoon and evening. Most models
show a few hundred J/kg cape, but there is a conditional severe risk
if the maximum possible instability can be realized at the same
time shear peaks. SPC has our west half under a marginal risk, or
level 1 out of 5, with localized wet downbursts being the main
concern. Otherwise, the increased atmospheric moisture and
instability will be enough fuel for any thunderstorms that develop to
produce dangerous lightning and local downpours, so keep this in
mind if you have have outdoor plans.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

For Sunday through Wednesday, a few weak upper level systems will
work with the continued warm and humid air in place to keep at
least scattered rain chances in the forecast each day. Wind shear
looks generally weak, but there could be enough instability for
some local gusty winds and heavy downpours with the stronger
thunderstorms, especially during the peak heating hours each
afternoon and early evening. An uptick in strong thunderstorm
potential could develop ahead of a cold front late Wednesday or
Thursday, but the details are uncertain at this time. The cold
front promises to bring another shot of cooler and drier air for
late next week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR will continue through the net 24 hours with increasing cirrus
clouds. Overnight winds will be light, mainly from the northeast.
Daytime winds will increase to 10KT from the east southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Nashville      85  66  80  67 /   0  20  80  80
Clarksville    82  65  77  65 /   0  40  80  70
Crossville     77  57  75  60 /   0  10  40  70
Columbia       85  66  79  65 /  10  30  80  80
Cookeville     79  62  77  63 /   0  10  60  80
Jamestown      78  58  76  61 /   0  10  50  70
Lawrenceburg   83  66  78  65 /  10  20  70  80
Murfreesboro   85  66  80  65 /   0  20  70  80
Waverly        83  65  78  64 /  10  40  90  70
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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....13