-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
415
FXUS61 KOKX 041700
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
100 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds southward from coastal New England into
midweek before shifting farther out into the Atlantic thereafter.
A sprawling upper low then drops into the Great Lakes late this
week, meandering toward the region into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast remains on track this afternoon.

High pressure builds southward from the Canadian Maritimes into
Northern New England. The local region is on the southern
periphery of the high, resulting in onshore winds. Surrounding
waters are only in the 60s, so highs will stay in the 70s for
coastal areas, with low to mid 80s across the interior.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, high pressure will slowly move farther out into
the Atlantic. Onshore flow will continue but will become more
southerly. Min temperatures are not expected to decrease much,
with a range only from the upper 50s to lower 60s. The increase
in clouds and more in the way of fog development is expected to
limit radiational cooling.

Regarding the fog and low clouds, the more southeast flow will
enable this low level moisture to linger into a part of the day
Wednesday. Current forecast does not indicate fog for latter
half of the morning, but it will be possible. Otherwise, high
pressure will continue drifting out into the Atlantic. Across
the local region, a warm front will be drawing closer from the
south and west.

The southerly winds continue Wednesday but with more clouds and
potentially some showers, cooler temperatures are expected
compared to the previous day. Interior areas have high
temperatures forecast in the lower 80s with the rest of the
forecast region staying in the 70s. In addition to the chance
for showers, there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms as
well. This will be mainly confined to the westernmost parts of
the region, NYC, and locations north and west, which will be
relatively closer to the approaching warm front.

The warm front moves in Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
bringing with it widespread rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms from time to time. The omega in the low levels as
well as elevated instability are still factors in the models in
the late Wednesday night through Thursday timeframe, therefore
keeping the chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Associated area of low pressure traverses the local region
Thursday night, bringing a cold front across. The showers and
thunderstorms decrease Thursday night, with more drier air
getting entrained within the region as surface flow becomes more
westerly.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled long term with a closed low trough cutting off from the
flow over the Great Lakes to start the period, meandering nearby and
keeping clouds, periodic showers, and cooler conditions in place
through at least early next week.

While not an entire washout, the sprawling cutoff low will likely
instigate diurnal showers each day, especially inland. With the cold
pool aloft, also can`t rule out the possibility of thunderstorms.
The showers may be enhanced at times by shortwaves rotating around
in the flow, and periods of steadier rain are certainly possible
depending on the placement and strength of these features.

Temperatures, while hampered by cloud cover and rain at times,
should still manage to get into the 70s and lower 80s most
afternoons, or about typical for this time of year. Capped PoPs at
high chance (50%) thru the period given the inherent uncertainty in
this pattern and range, otherwise, stayed close to the national
blend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure along the New England coast builds in today, with the
center lingering offshore midweek.

Mainly VFR. Most of the stratus and fog has dissipated, except
for a patch just south of JFK. It remains VFR through the day.
Perhaps more widespread fog/stratus tonight into Wednesday
morning with the persistent onshore flow. Conditions could begin
to decline again as early as this evening, before becoming more
likely toward midnight and thereafter. IFR or lower in this
period. Improvement Wed AM after 12Z, but could linger into late
morning for some.

A light easterly flow veers southeasterly by this afternoon,
then more southerly tonight. Speeds at or under 10 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Lower confidence on timing of sub VFR conditions tonight into
Wednesday morning and this may be off by several hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: Possible IFR or lower early in stratus and fog. Improving
to VFR during the day. MVFR or lower possible late day into the
night with chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the daytime hours.

Friday: Chance of MVFR with showers and possible thunderstorms.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fog has burned off for this afternoon, but the fog probably
returns tonight. Might need to eventually issue a dense fog
advisory for most, if not all, waters.

Conditions will continue to remain below SCA levels through
Wednesday night with a relatively weak pressure gradient in
place. SCA chances increase on the ocean Thursday into Thursday
night with non-ocean waters likely remaining below SCA
thresholds.

Ocean seas may linger near 5 ft early Friday before lowering under
weakening SW flow. Thereafter, conditions are expected to remain
below SCA levels through the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday.

With precipitable waters still forecast to be near 2 inches
late Wednesday night into Thursday, some showers and especially
any thunderstorms could have heavy downpours. The potentially
torrential rain could cause minor flooding in low lying, urban
and poor drainage areas. With sufficient movement to showers and
thunderstorms, would still think much of the flooding potential
would be minor.

Total rainfall forecast Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
evening approximately a half to 1 inch with the possibility of
some locally higher amounts.

There are no significant hydrological concerns from Friday through
early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the approach of a new moon this week, astronomical levels are
on the rise. A southerly, then southeasterly, flow will also support
increasing surge this week. This should be sufficient to get some of
the vulnerable locations along the western LI Sound and the South
Shore Bays to break minor flood benchmarks. A Coastal Flood Advisory
was hoisted for coastal Fairfield, Westchester, and Nassau for this
evening`s high tide, with a Coastal Flood Statement in place for
coastal Queens, where the most vulnerable spots may see brief minor
flooding.

The persistent flow and astronomically high tides will likely
lead to additional minor flooding in subsequent evening high
tides into late this week.

There is a moderate rip current risk on the ocean beaches through
Wednesday due to around 2 ft seas on the ocean and onshore
south to southeast winds reaching up to near 10 kt.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT
     this evening for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...