-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
915
FXUS61 KOKX 030549
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
149 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak disturbance moves through the region into the beginning
of Monday. High pressure then builds back across the area Monday
night, lingering through mid- week before heading out into the
Atlantic for the latter half of the week. A series of frontal
system then approaches from the west Thursday through next
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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A few widely scattered showers and sprinkles are making their
way through the local area tonight as a weakening shortwave
moves through. Column above is quite dry, so any activity that
is able to reach the ground, should remain light. Forecast
remains on track.

Increased cloud cover overnight as a mid level disturbance
moves into the area from the west. This mid level shortwave
becomes less defined and weakens as it approaches the area. Any
showers that are associated with it will weaken or dissipate as
they approach from the west this evening and into the first half
of tonight. The combination of showers falling out of a mid-
level cloud deck with low level dry air from the departing high
as well as the weakening forcing should allow for not much more
than cloud cover tonight.

Lows tonight will be warm, generally in the low to middle 60s,
though the city will likely remain in the upper 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The shortwave passes overhead with a weak mid-level trough remaining
over the area on Monday. With skies becoming clearer on Monday with
the departing shortwave, temperatures will once again rise into the
low to middle 80s for much of the area. Winds will remain light out
of the west, gradually shifting to the southwest and south with
seabreeze enhancement into the afternoon. Some CAMs are indicating
some instability developing into the afternoon, primarily for areas
away from the immediate coastline. This may provide for some stray
convective showers or thunderstorms for inland areas, so kept a
slight chance for this potential, though it is fairly dependent on a
combination of clearing skies and thus more ample daytime
heating and a slightly moister BL.

Any shower or storm weakens by evening as the mid-level heights
begin to recover and ridge a bit more. This allows a surface
high pressure to build back into the region from Southeast
Canada Monday night and into Tuesday. Lows Monday night will be
in the middle 50s to low 60s, a bit cooler than previous nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Seasonable temperatures through the end of the week becoming
slightly below by the weekend.

*Dry conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday followed by wet
weather for week`s end and through next weekend.

There has been not much change in the forecast thinking for this
update; have stuck close to the NBM with local adjustments.

Global ensembles are in generally good agreement with the synoptic
pattern through next weekend though some timing and magnitude
differences exist. Ridging aloft continues to shift east on Tuesday
and Wednesday as the ridge axis passes east of the area.
The ridge then flattens to a more zonal flow by Thursday and Friday.
This is the result of a sprawling upper low taking shape over the
central Canadian Maritimes, of Pacific origin, that will head
southeast into Friday and settles over eastern Canada (EC) or over
the northeast (GFS and CMC) by the weekend. Regardless, this will
return us to a somewhat cooler and wetter pattern toward the end of
the long term period.

At the surface, high pressure centered over New England on Tuesday
shifts offshore by Wednesday. Interior sections will be warmest for
these two days under dry conditions with east/southeast flow keeping
coastal areas a few degrees cooler. Highs in the upper 70s to near
80, with low 70s for the coast each day.

By Thursday, a surface low north of Great Lakes, associated with the
aforementioned upper low heads slowly east. An associated warm front
approaches the area on Thursday and remains over, or just north of
the area. Shower chances ramp up on Thursday morning and moreso by
Thursday afternoon with the front in the vicinity. Have maintained
thunder in the forecast as model soundings continue to show some
elevated instability/CAPE Thursday afternoon into evening, which
seems reasonable in the warm sector should some clearing occur
during the day. However, the bulk of the precipitation looks to fall
after 00Z Friday which should limit the convective potential
somewhat. Deep southerly flow ahead of this frontal system will
increase available moisture...see the Hydrology section below for
additional details.

The main cold front pushes through the area as the surface low heads
east by Friday. Given that the large upper low remains to the north
with the local area under deep cyclonic flow, another frontal system
quickly follows Friday into Saturday with additional showers and
thunder possible.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Offshore high pressure remains through the TAF period. A weakening
disturbance moves across into early Monday morning.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Before daybreak, a few very light rain showers or sprinkles will
be possible within the NYC terminals, KSWF and KISP but no
significant reduction in visibility is expected. Also, a pop-up
shower or thunderstorm will be possible for Monday afternoon,
mainly in the latter half in and around NYC terminals, KHPN and
KSWF. There is a low possibility of MVFR with any shower or
thunderstorm.

Winds overall will be quite light through the TAF period with wind
speeds under 10 kts. Wind direction will be quite variable tonight
into early Monday, followed by more of a sea breeze circulation for
most terminals during the afternoon before weakening going into
early Monday evening. For Monday night, wind direction becomes
variable again.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence in wind direction forecast.

Wind direction may turn out to be more variable for Monday with
occasional large differences from forecast possible Monday
afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late Monday night - Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR during the day. MVFR or lower possible late day
into the night with chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain showers, possible
thunderstorms afternoon into night.

Friday: MVFR possible at times in showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Conditions will remain below SCA levels through midweek, with
seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less. The ocean waters may
begin to approach SCA conditions with 4-5 ft waves Thursday
afternoon into Friday under enhanced southerly flow.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through Wednesday. Isolated
heavy rain with any showers or thunderstorms Thursday into
Friday is possible. PWATS could reach 1.75-2 inches Thursday
into Thursday night which is above the 90th percentile and
nearing the daily max for the date, per SPC sounding climatology
for OKX. WPC has placed much of the area into a MRGL risk of
excessive rainfall on Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With the approach of a new moon this week, astronomical levels will
be on the rise. With winds becoming more southerly and eventually
southeasterly, this will allow for increasing surge this week. As a
result, some locations especially across the Western LI Sound
and LI South Shore back bays may see minor coastal flooding,
starting with Monday afternoon`s high tide cycle and becoming
more widespread Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

For now have held off on statements for the Monday afternoon
high tide cycle. Stevens guidance shows minor flood benchmarks
being approached, or exceeded by a few tenths for a few spots
along southern Nassau and the Western Sound. Thus, trends will
need to be monitored in subsequent cycles as minor coastal
flooding will become more likely for these areas Tuesday into
Wed.

There is a low rip current risk through Tuesday due to low seas
on the ocean and southerly winds mainly 10 kt or less.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DBR/DR/MW
NEAR TERM...DBR/DR/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...JM/MET
MARINE...DBR/MW
HYDROLOGY...DBR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...