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332
FXUS65 KPUB 142021
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
221 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- A low chance, 30 percent, for a stronger storm or two capable
  of producing small hail and gusty winds to around 50 mph
  through early this evening.

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms return Sunday
  afternoon, with a few stronger storms capable of producing
  gusty winds.

- Spotty critical fire weather conditions over the plains Sunday
  afternoon.

- Showers and storms expected across portions of the region for
  next week, with a strong storm or two possible, particularly
  on Tuesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Relatively quiet and warm conditions are in place this afternoon, as
upper level ridging is occurring across the region. This upper level
ridging along with a drier air mass will likely suppress any precip
development for the remainder of the day into the early evening.
That being said, do think there will be enough low level convergence
and moisture over the far southeast plains to support an isolated
storm or two. Given the lacking deep moisture, stronger wind field,
and large scale support, think any development will be rather
isolated and brief this afternoon. Additionally, the above mentioned
factors will limit the overall intensity of any shower or storm.
DCAPE will remain high in this location this afternoon though, and
can`t rule at least some gusty winds to around 50 mph.

Will see the upper ridge shift to the east by Sunday, as a deep
upper trough swings across the western CONUS. This will bring a
return to deep southwesterly flow during this period. Some increases
in moisture within this setup will support increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the mountains, mainly the
Continental Divide. Elsewhere, dry conditions will once again be in
place. This will limit precip development once again on Sunday,
though at least isolated shower and thunderstorm is possible over
the mountain valleys and plains. Given the likely deep mixing, would
not be surprised to see a few stronger storms capable of producing
gusty wind during the afternoon hours, especially over the plains
where some slight better low level focus will reside. The deep
mixing in this pattern will support another warm day, with high
temperatures to once again be above normal. The warm and dry weather
with increasing winds and gusts will also support increasing fire
weather danger. At this time though, only anticipated spotty
critical fire weather conditions over the plains and have not issued
any Fire Weather headlines.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Sunday Night: Sunday evening will bring some active weather to south
central and southeastern Colorado, though will quickly become quiet
during the overnight hours. A minor shortwave embedded within
southwesterly flow will be pushing over the region during the
evening hours, and exit to the northeast through the overnight
hours. With the uptick in forcing from the wave, along with higher
moisture starting to advect over the region, isolated to scattered
showers are expected to persist from late Sunday afternoon and re-
blossom during the early to mid evening hours. Given minor
instability and shear present, a couple of strong storms will be
possible, particularly across the eastern plains. The greatest
hazard with any stronger storm will be strong outflow winds given
high cloud bases and large DCAPE values. With that all said, as the
wave exits the area and diurnal instability wanes, any precipitation
present is expected to dissipate during the late evening to early
overnight hours, with dry conditions prevailing for the rest of the
overnight hours. The exception to this will be along the San Juan
Mountains, where moist orographic will allow for scattered showers
to persist overnight. Otherwise across the area, mild temperatures,
light winds, and some overnight clouds are anticipated. Looking at
temperatures, most of south central and southeastern Colorado will
remain above seasonal low temperatures for mid September.

Monday - Friday: For much of next week, active weather will return
for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. Overall,
southwesterly flow will prevail as a broad trough sits across the
western US, with closed lows/open waves swinging around within the
greater flow near/over the region. With the heightened forcing, and
at least modest moisture in place, showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day to some extent. Monday will have the greatest
coverage of showers and storms, especially along the mountains, as
moisture streams up and over the region. For Tuesday through Friday,
isolated to widely scattered shower and storm development is still
expected across the area, though will become more focused across the
plains as drier air starts to advect over the area and limit
moisture further west. In addition, strong storms will be a concern
throughout this period across the plains, though confidence remains
low (20-30%) in development within Colorado, as drylines ebb and
flow across the far eastern plains of Colorado in response to the
aforementioned lows/waves in the broader synoptic flow. Outside of
precipitation concerns, critical fire weather conditions may
materialize across parts of the lower elevations throughout the week
given increasing winds and dry conditions for most, though
confidence is also low (20-30%) in timing and areas of greatest
concern. Otherwise, warm temperatures, breezy winds, and afternoon
clouds are anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado
throughout this timeframe. Focusing on temperatures, the warmth
remains, as much of the area remains above seasonal temperatures for
mid to late September. With that said though, there are hints that
of a cold front dropping southward during the Friday to Saturday
time frame as the troughing patterns starts to push eastward.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected across the TAF
sites this forecast period, while winds remain generally light
and diurnally driven. However, a brief period of steadier winds
with a few gusts around 20 kt will be possible across ALS this
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ