Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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844 FXUS62 KRAH 251946 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 345 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will pass over the area today, then push quickly offshore by this evening, allowing hot and humid conditions to return for Wednesday. Another front will approach from the northwest early Thursday, then settle slowly southeast through the Carolinas Thursday through Thursday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1050 AM Tuesday... No significant changes were made to the forecast this morning. A 1018 mb area of surface high pressure is currently centered over northern VA and the eastern panhandle of WV, with the cold front now well to our south across southern GA/SC. Looking aloft, a mid/upper low now centered over Nova Scotia will lift NE through tonight as ridging builds over the Deep South. Warming and drying from this ridging is resulting in a stout subsident inversion at 700 mb evident again on this morning`s GSO sounding. It will be another hot day with the ridge in place, and low-level thicknesses look to be similar to yesterday, supporting high temperatures ranging from lower-90s in the far NE to upper-90s in the far SW. However, dry air and good mixing will help dew points be noticeably lower than yesterday, dropping to the upper-50s this afternoon across the far northern Piedmont and lower-to-mid-60s in most other places. So heat indices will be similar to air temperatures. Still, basic heat precautions should be taken if you have to spend extended periods of time outdoors, especially given this extended stretch of heat we have been in. As the surface high moves offshore this afternoon, the low-level flow will switch southeasterly, helping bring in a sea breeze. Some CAMS depict a few showers developing in southern Sampson and far SE Cumberland counties along the sea breeze so keep slight chance POPs there from mid afternoon to early evening (19-23z). But don`t think sea breeze forcing will be enough to develop anything robust given the strong capping inversion in place, so if any precipitation does occur it would be light and brief. Otherwise it will be dry and mostly sunny with just some scattered flat cu possible. Tonight will be another warm night with lows in the upper-60s to lower-70s. Low stratus will be possible early tomorrow morning especially in the south. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Tuesday... Hot with near Heat Advisory criteria... Hot conditions look to be close to heat advisory criteria for portions of the eastern Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain Wednesday afternoon and early evening. The heat index numbers currently indicate that the urban areas around Raleigh and Fayetteville should top out in the 100-104 range, just short of criteria. Surrounding areas are a few degrees lower in the 98-101 range for heat indices. Maximum temperatures should top out between 96-100, except 93-96 in the NW-N Piedmont. We will hold off on a heat advisory for now, but we may need one for Wednesday in later forecasts, especially for the urban areas around the Triangle and Fayetteville. Otherwise, mostly sunny and hot conditions under strong ridging will continue. There may be an isolated thunderstorm SE Coastal Plain associated with the seabreeze late day. Another mid level trough will approach late Wednesday night. There is a slight chance of showers/thunderstorm NW-N overnight, but chances appear minimal at this time as models suggest plenty of CINH overnight. Lows will be mostly in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 345 PM Tuesday... Best chance of showers/storms looks to be Thu/Thu night and Sun/Sun night, both just ahead of mid level northern stream shortwave troughs and corresponding surface fronts. Temps will stay above normal through the weekend, esp Thu and Sat/Sun, before moving closer to normal Mon/Tue. Thu/Thu night: A northern stream mid level trough will cross the St Lawrence Valley into New England/Can Maritimes as the tail end of this front eases SE through the Carolinas, taking a frontal zone into our area. The greatest chance for overlapping of strong heating, high PW (near 2"), and decent surface dewpoints will be across our S and E, where the majority of NBM members have precip in the afternoon and early evening. Following this, will have a good chance of showers/storms NW and likely pops across the SE. The deep layer bulk shear will be rather low at just around 10-15 kts with marginal mid level lapse rates, and the moderate SBCAPE does shift E of I-95 late in the day, so expect a decrease in pops in the evening and mostly dry weather overnight as the mid levels dry out behind the mid level trough axis. Expect highs in the lower 90s NW trending to upper 90s SE. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Fri/Fri night: The surface front is likely to settle just to our S Fri morning, then quickly wash out as the surface high to our N shifts offshore by afternoon. Behind Thu`s shortwave trough, mid level ridging spreads in from the SW across the Carolinas and Southeast coast during this time. PW remains well above normal across our S and SW where low level confluent flow may help organize scattered afternoon convection, perhaps aided in part by an upslope low level component. Will carry chance pops, near climo, across the S and W with little or nothing in the NE, within the exiting surface ridge. With near normal thicknesses balanced by abundant heating, temps should be a bit lower than Thu, with highs around 90 to the mid 90s. Heat index values are projected to be 100-105 over all but the NW. Sat-Sun night: Mid level ridging builds further from the S Plains across the Gulf states Sat through early Sun, as our thicknesses rise to 10-15 m above normal with deep mixing and warm/dry mid levels and weak lee surface troughing over the Piedmont. We should see highs a bit warmer Sat, from the low 90s NW to upper 90s SE, and will have near-climo pops Sat focused on the W CWA where mountain convection may drift late in the day. A potent northern stream trough that moves from the Upper Midwest and across the N Great Lakes Sat will move through S Que/St Lawrence Valley and into the interior Northeast Sun/Sun night, and this plus the westward propagation of the mid level ridge further W into the S Plains and lower Miss Valley will induce mid level troughing down the Eastern Seaboard toward E NC. While SBCAPE and deep layer shear will be marginal Sun, the increasing and deepening moisture (projected PWs nearly 2.5") and the approaching surface frontal zone both support higher pops in the good chance to likely range, highest across the N Sun afternoon through the evening, with the front pushing to our SE overnight. Expect highs again from the low 90s NW to upper 90s SE with high dewpoints well into the 70s, indicative of increased heat stress as heat index values reach 100-110 over nearly the entire CWA, all but the extreme NW, both days, although confidence is lower Sun given the potential for clouds and convection. Mon-Tue: Pops should be on the low side, 10-25% along the S and W, as surface high pressure builds in from the N within mid level troughing. Low level thicknesses suggest highs fairly close to normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. -GIH
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM Tuesday... 24-hour TAF period: Dry weather and VFR conditions will prevail across central NC through this evening, with just some scattered stratocumulus and altocumulus. There could be a very isolated shower or storm from the sea breeze in the far SE, mainly southern Sampson County, later this afternoon. Model soundings (including on the RAP, HRRR and NAM) show potential for IFR or low MVFR stratus late tonight into early tomorrow morning. The highest confidence of this occurring is at FAY, but it can`t be ruled out at RDU and RWI either. Any ceilings will quickly lift and scatter out by mid morning. Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) and from the S/SE today, shifting to SW tomorrow morning. Outlook: IFR-MVFR stratus will be possible especially at FAY and RWI each early morning from Thu through the weekend. A chance of mainly afternoon-evening showers/storms will also return to the forecast for Wed through the weekend, with the relative highest probabilities at FAY/RWI on Thu. Additionally, the development of an Appalachian- lee, nocturnal low-level jet across and offshore the Middle Wed night may result in marginal low-level wind shear in cntl NC during that time. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 25: KRDU: 100/1952 KFAY: 102/1914 June 26: KRDU: 102/1952 KFAY: 101/1951 June 27: KFAY: 102/1998 June 30: KFAY: 102/2012 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 25: KRDU: 77/2010 KFAY: 75/1952 June 26: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 76/1902 KFAY: 76/1997 June 27: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 77/1998 June 28: KGSO: 76/1969 KRDU: 76/1952 KFAY: 78/1914 June 29: KGSO: 74/2010 KRDU: 78/1914 KFAY: 76/1969 June 30: KGSO: 74/1936 KRDU: 80/1936 KFAY: 79/1936 July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 75/2012 KFAY: 76/1990 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Danco SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Danco/MWS CLIMATE...RAH