Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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230 FXUS62 KRAH 170716 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 313 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Deep high pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through much of this week. A wave of low pressure will track westward into the Southeast on Thursday into Friday, bringing rain chances to our southern sections. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 313 AM Monday... Water vapor imagery this morning depicts strong upper ridging along the eastern seaboard. A few mid-level perturbations were evident across the deep south migrating northward towards the TN valley. At the sfc, a weak boundary was observed along the inner banks/coastal Plain, extending westward into our southwestern areas. There were a few isentropic-driven showers along this boundary earlier, but they have since diminished the past few hours. Low- level esely flow will persist today, but the deeper moisture/instability axis will shift further northwest into the TN Valley. Most afternoon convection will follow suit, as central NC remains primarily dry. A few stray showers could trickle into the Triad late this afternoon, but overall expect mostly dry and hot weather again today. Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s/lower 90s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 313 AM Monday... The anchored mid-level ridge will strengthen to ~2 standard deviations above climatology on Tuesday, amplifying across New England. Anomalous moisture will continue to migrate north and west of our area, promoting dry conditions across central NC. Some drier air may mix into our eastern areas, promoting decent mixing of dew points Tuesday afternoon (into the lower 60s). This should keep heat indices contained to the upper 80s/lower 90s. Still, the actual temperatures will rise once again into the upper 80s/lower 90s. Given the persistent hot conditions, we continue to advise those spending considerable amount of time outdoors to practice heat safety.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday... Still anticipate below normal rain chances for much of this week, with increasing heat potentially reaching dangerous levels by the weekend. Wed-Thu aftn: A strong mid level anticyclone will be stretched across PA/NJ/MD early Wed. It will remain quite strong through Thu and drift only slightly S, its center over the Delmarva by Thu evening with the ridge oriented W-to-E. Meanwhile, at the surface, a strong high centered out over the NW Atlantic well E/offshore of New England will continue to extend ESE through NC, weakening a bit heading into Thu. As we`ll have low level thicknesses slightly below normal Wed/Thu capped by anomalously warm/dry/stable mid levels and below normal PW, convection chances will be extremely limited, and will maintain a pop-free forecast. The long-fetch low level easterly flow won`t be particularly strong through Thu but may still draw enough Atlantic moisture into southern NC for a few more clouds there, but otherwise skies should be no worse than partly cloudy. The low level thicknesses offset by decent sunshine should result in temps near to slightly above normal. Thu evening-Fri: Our focus briefly shifts to a possible low level inverted trough or a closed surface low that is expected to develop on the southern end of the surface ridge a few hundred miles E or ENE of the northern Bahamas by mid week. Such a low or trough, if it forms, may be tropical (warm core) in nature, not an unexpected turn of events given long easterly low level fetch, the time of year, the extremely warm ocean waters, and the models` consensus of very weak upper level shear in this area. The latest runs of deterministic models and ensemble systems generally favor an inverted trough pushing W onto the Southeast coast Fri morning, which could result in increasing clouds Thu night and a chance of showers and isolated storms across our SE and far S sections Fri. But there is far from a model consensus on this, and the low level flow on the NW side of an onshore-moving trough could actually result in a backing low level flow in our area to northeasterly with a reinforcement of low level dryness and stability in central NC. Will lean toward the NBM`s solution of low chance pops in our SE and S Fri afternoon for now. With the mid level heat dome drawing closer, expect further warming Fri to highs from around 90 to the mid 90s. Sat-Sun: While we`ll start to see rain chances gradually trending back toward climatology, the big story this weekend will be the increasingly oppressive heat. Model differences predictably grow at this range, but most indicate the mid level ridge center drifting SW and expanding across NC Sat/Sat night before yielding a bit to a broad northern stream trough and associated surface cold front tracking through the Great Lakes region by Sun. The surface high will push further out over the Atlantic, as a lee trough forms through the W Piedmont well out ahead of the cold front. Our thicknesses are expected to climb to around 10-15 m above normal Sat and to 15-25 m above normal Sun, as our dewpoints rise through the 60s into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Shade air temps are expected to peak at 94-100F both days, with heat indices of 95-106F and warm lows mostly in the 70s, which when combined with sunshine and a limited breeze will contribute to an increased risk of heat illnesses. Regarding convection chances, with the trend to confluent steering flow from the SSE through SSW and surface ESE flow pulling in both Gulf and Atlantic moisture, the initially low PW through Fri will rebound back over 1.5" over our far E and SE Sat and areawide Sun. This, with lowering heights aloft due to the weakening mid level ridge and approaching trough, will support small chance pops mainly across the S each afternoon into early evening. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 109 AM Monday... VFR conditions will mostly prevail over the 24 hour TAF period. However, a brief period of MVFR ceilings appears possible at KINT and maybe KGSO near sunrise this morning. Any linger stratus should lift to VFR by mid morning. Otherwise expect another day of mostly light ssely sfc flow and mostly dry conditions (a few stray showers could trickle into the Triad later today). Outlook: VFR conditions should largely persist through Friday.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Luchetti