-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
558
FXUS62 KRAH 211756
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
156 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will remain in control over the region through
early Sunday. Rain chances will return late Sunday as a northern
stream upper level trough moves into the area. A pre-frontal trough
and weak cold front will move into NC Monday afternoon and night,
then lift northeastward across the Middle Atlantic as a warm front
Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1110 AM Friday...

The slightly weaker but still strong 596 dam mid-level anticyclone
will continue to slowly weaken and drift further SW from the TN
Valley to the lower MS Valley through tonight. At the surface, high
pressure east of VA/NC will continue to nose westward with the
center moving south close to Bermuda. Meanwhile an inverted trough
extending from a 1018 mb area of low pressure just east of
Jacksonville will graze our southern areas today. This will help
switch the low-level flow to a S/SE direction, increasing 1000-850
mb thicknesses by around 10 m compared to yesterday. This will
support high temperatures in the lower-to-mid-90s across central NC.
Dew points will also be slightly higher but with good mixing should
still bottom out in the lower-to-mid-60s in most places, keeping
heat indices close to the air temperatures.

Radar depicts a line of showers from enhanced moisture convergence
in the inverted trough currently moving NW to the SE NC coast around
ILM. The latest HREF still shows some upper-60s to lower-70s dew
points and 750-1250 J/kg of CAPE creeping into our far SE in the
afternoon. Some CAMS (including the NSSL and ARW) depict a few of
the showers and storms making it to our far SE, but they quickly
dissipate before moving farther inland. So continue slight to low
chance POPs over just southern Sampson County from this afternoon
through 00z. Any convection would quickly die off after sunset, with
milder lows in the upper-60s to lower-70s as higher dew points begin
to overspread the whole area. Guidance shows a decent chance of
patchy fog late tonight over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain where
the best low-level moisture will be.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Friday...

Heights aloft will continue to lower as the upper anticyclone/ridge
retrogrades further west to the lower MS Valley and srn Plains by
early Sunday. The Atlantic surface high will push farther east out
into the Atlantic, with a pre-frontal trough developing in the lee
of the Appalachians. Low-level thicknesses and humidity will
steadily rise as the low-level flow becomes increasingly southerly.
Given an expected 6-8 m increase in thicknesses, highs Saturday
should be 2-3 degrees warmer, topping out in the lower to mid 90s.
Very humid and uncomfortable dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower
70s will be prevalent and will propel heat indices in the upper 90s
to lower 100s. This level of heat, this early in the season when
most are not acclimated will pose a moderate risk for heat related
illnesses, especially those without effective cooling and those with
chronic diseases.

Rain chances will once again be limited to an isolated sea-breeze
convection across the far SE zones.

Warmer overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

..Dangerously Hot Temperatures Expected this Weekend and into Early
Next Week

As the upper level high that has been over the region the past few
days retreats to the Southwest US, an upper level trough will move
across the northern Mid-Atlantic region Sunday before extending
south on Monday. As that feature moves off shore another upper level
trough develops over western TN valley then deepening as its moves
across the Appalachian mountains  Thursday and into the Piedmont by
Friday.  At the surface, Bermuda high pressure in the Atlantic will
continue to pump warm moist air from the south, but keeping the
shower activity mainly along the coast Sunday. A low pressure system
centered over New England with a cold front extending down into the
Mid-Atlantic region will result in showers and storms beginning as
early as late Sunday night and continuing through Monday. The front
will stall out along the coast but but Tuesday and most of Wednesday
is expected to be dry across our region. A few isolated showers or
storms cant be ruled out Wednesday, especially in the Western
Piedmont and Sandhills region thus, kept a 20-30% chance in. As the
next cold front moves into the region Thursday PoPs increase
significantly especially in the afternoon when peak heating is
occurring and best environment for thunderstorms to develop. Models
have come to better agreement with the timing of the cold front
which for now, is expected to move through the region Thursday/
Thursday night and exit the region Friday night.

Temperatures will still be a big part of the forecast for the long
term. As high pressure influences south/southwesterly flow and humid
conditions it is expected to be very hot. Temperatures are expected
to be in the mid to upper 90s across the region. Heat indices
ranging from 100-107 F can be expected across the Triangle region
and isolated areas over the northern Coastal Plain Sunday. While
conditions will dry out quickly Tuesday and Wednesday are expected
to be the hottest day of the forecast period. Highs in the NW will
be in the mid 90s while elsewhere will see temperatures in the upper
90s. Heat indices will be dangerous on Wednesday as areas around the
Triangle and parts of the Sandhills region could see another round
of 100-107 F. As the cold front approaches and moves through the
region late week, temperatures will range from upper 80s NW to
low/mid 90s SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 155 PM Friday...

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions will prevail through this evening.
A few showers and maybe an isolated storm will be possible in the
far SE, mainly Sampson County. Otherwise it will be dry with just
some scattered mid-level cumulus. Guidance shows a good signal for
fog and IFR/LIFR stratus late tonight and early tomorrow morning
across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain, especially around FAY. VFR
will return everywhere by mid-morning. Winds will be light and
mostly S/SE today, shifting to more SW tomorrow.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to persist through
Saturday. An approaching cold front will support a slight chance of
showers and storms and related sub-VFR restrictions on Sunday, with
better coverage on Monday. Tuesday should be mostly dry before
isolated showers and storms may return on Wednesday especially west.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

June 22:
KRDU: 100/2022
KFAY: 101/2022

June 23:
KRDU: 100/1986
KFAY: 102/1981

June 24:
KRDU: 99/2010
KFAY: 102/1914

June 25:
KRDU: 100/1952
KFAY: 102/1914

June 26:
KRDU: 102/1952
KFAY: 101/1951


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 21:
KRDU: 75/1933

June 22:
KGSO: 75/1981
KRDU: 78/1933

June 23:
KGSO: 74/2015
KRDU: 77/1890
KFAY: 77/2017

June 24:
KGSO: 76/2015
KRDU: 76/1888
KFAY: 79/2010

June 25:
KGSO: 75/2015
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 75/1952

June 26:
KGSO: 74/2010
KRDU: 76/1902
KFAY: 76/1997

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...cbl
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Danco/CBL
CLIMATE...RAH