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329
FXUS65 KREV 222045
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
145 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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* Hot weather continues through tomorrow afternoon along with
  afternoon and early evening breezy conditions.

* There is a 10-20% chance of showers and maybe a storm or two
  south of Highway 50 Tuesday. Otherwise, dry and breezy
  conditions prevail through next week.

* A very slow and gradual trend of cooling temperatures start
  tomorrow, but remaining above average. Temperatures warm up to
  well above average again next weekend.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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We remain under the influence of an upper level ridge encompassing
most of southern US. Therefore, expect above normal temperatures
today and tomorrow. The Sierra communities will be in the lower 80s,
while western NV valleys will be in the mid-upper 90s, with some
lower valley locations possibly hitting 100F. Reno has a 55-75%
chance of reaching 100F this afternoon and 0% tomorrow. It is
still going to be in the 90s, though. The Lake Tahoe basin has a
70-80% chance of reaching 85F, and the Eastern Sierra communities
have a 70-90% chance of reaching 90F. So, it is looking quite hot
overall across the region. Temperatures tomorrow will be a 1-4
degrees cooler.

Breezy conditions are becoming more common starting tomorrow
afternoon as the upper ridge is slowly pushed to the southeast
with the approach of an upper trough descending from the Pacific
NW and tightening the pressure gradient. Therefore, expect west to
southwest wind gusts each afternoon between 20-30 mph tomorrow,
then 15-25 mph Mon-Tues. The core of the upper trough makes
landfall in WA on Wednesday which is when we are expecting the
strongest winds of the week. This most likely will lead to near
critical fire weather concerns as conditions remain very dry with
only a slight chance (10-20%) of showers on Tuesday afternoon
over the Sierra. The chances for thunder remain under 10% as
instability is very marginal.

Afternoon highs will be generally lower each day through Thursday.
Pretty much associated with the passage of the trough to our
north and its associated cold front pushing through on Thursday.
Conditions start to warm up again to above normal next weekend as
the upper ridge in the south expands again towards the west and
northwest and centers over the Four Corners region. However,
another scenario has the ridge staying east of the Rockies which
would indicate seasonal temperatures for the region. We`ll need to
see how the next few model runs continue to resolve conditions to
have a clearer picture for next weekend.

-Crespo
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&&

.AVIATION...

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VFR conditions continue through the period. Some light HZ is
likely during periods of lighter winds. Winds will be generally
from the west and southwest below 10 kts. However, gusts up to
20-25 kts are likely between 21-4Z, and again tomorrow afternoon
between 19-4Z. Hotter temperatures today and tomorrow may lead to
density altitude concerns.

-Crespo
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

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Dry and hot weather with periods of afternoon breezes this
weekend continues to lead to an elevated fire weather risk across
the region. Tomorrow, Sunday will be of concern as the period of
gusty winds is longer, plus it has been hot and dry today.
Conditions improve on Monday and Tuesday as winds slightly decrease,
but isolated locations especially in far north Washoe, the
Surprise Valley and eastern Lassen could still see brief periods
of near critical conditions due to the strength of the west to
southwest winds.

Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the days of major concern when
near critical conditions are very likely due to stronger westerly
winds. This comes after a prolonged period of hot and well above
normal temperatures. Plus, dry conditions with min RH generally
below 20% CA, and below 15% NV, and breezy afternoon winds.

Conditions should improve towards the weekend with lighter winds
expected areawide.


-Crespo
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&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$