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567
FXUS61 KRLX 260714
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
314 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front crosses today, with rounds showers and storms; a
few storms could be strong or severe. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with another cold front.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 220 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:

  * Rounds of showers and thunderstorms today.

  * Some storms could be strong or severe.

  * Main threats are damaging winds and hail.

  * There is a slight risk (2/5) of severe weather and a
    marginal risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall today.

A warm front is about to start traversing the area this morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible for some locations along
and behind the front early this morning. Chances are higher
across southeastern Ohio, northeastern Kentucky and western
West Virginia when an outflow boundary from a dead MCS over the
Midwest moves through. The amount of activity we receive this
morning will be pivotal in the severity of the second round that
will move through ahead of a cold front this afternoon. There
is a chance that the round early this morning could disrupt the
expected second round of storms this afternoon.

The second round of showers and thunderstorms will move through
this afternoon lasting into the evening as a cold front crosses
the area. There will most likely be a linear mode to this round
of storms with possible cells ahead of the main line. This
system looks to hit during the prime heating of the day, so some
storms could be strong to severe. As such, SPC has the entire
forecast area in slight risk (level 2/5) for severe weather. The
main threats will be damaging winds and hail with these storms.
The tornado threat has diminished for the most part as bulk
shear values this afternoon continue to lessen; SPC has even
dropped the 2 percent risk across the area. Will still remain
vigilant for any changes with that threat.

NAM soundings show a decent CAPE profiles between 1,500 and
3,500 J/Kg this afternoon in multiple locations, i.e Charleston,
Huntington, southeast Ohio and Carter County, KY. 3km CAPE also
looks to be above 100J/Kg for multiple locations. Freezing
level looks to be between 11,000 and 12,000 feet which is
slightly lower than previous events, meaning the increased risk
for hail is present. Overall, the potential for a linear event
with damaging winds and hail is on tap for this afternoon if all
pans out.

Another afternoon of above normal temperatures is expected today
and most guidance agrees on upper 80s and lower 90s for the
lowlands; upper 70s to upper 80s in the mountains. There is a
chance that cloud cover clings around the area today preventing
temperatures from reaching projected values, but this will
depend on the speed at which this warm front moves through,
which would impact the severity of the aforementioned storms.

WPC issued a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as PWATs are
between 1.50" and 2.00" indicating heavy downpours are likely
with some of these storms and showers. Localized to isolated
flooding could be possible for areas that receive repeated
rounds of heavy rainfall, especially locations that have a lower
FFG, such as the northern lowlands from Parkersburg to
Clarksburg. Will also have to watch any remnant cold pool
moisture overnight into Thursday morning that could be behind
the cold front. For the most part though, things will start settle
down early Thursday morning outside of some lingering moisture
in the mountains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Models indicate that enough low level moisture will remain
behind the cold front to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while others
indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain POPs,
with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable
temperatures can be expected for Thursday.

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb above normal
for this time of year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms
are also once again possible, although most of the region will
remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on
Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through late Saturday
night into Sunday, with better agreement on the timing than
previous runs.

A high pressure system will provide dry weather behind the front
on Monday. Models have some disagreement on the amount of cooler
air for Monday, with temperatures either more seasonable or
possibly even below normal.

The cooler weather will be rather brief, as the high pressure
system slides eastward allowing for southerly winds and above
normal temperatures by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 125 AM Wednesday...

Warm front approaching from the west lofting some clouds and
moisture over the area this morning, most notably across the
southern half of the area. A few showers and thunderstorms could
form as the warm front moves through early this morning, but
expecting a lull in the activity by ~12Z with CIGs forecasted
to scatter and lift some ahead of an afternoon round.

Scattered thunderstorms and showers will arrive this afternoon
as the atmosphere becomes unstable ahead of a cold front,
anytime after ~16Z, as a cold front approaches from the west.
MVFR and IFR restrictions possible in and around this activity.

Light to calm SW`rly flow expected this morning. Winds will pick
up after sunrise with mixing, then shift out of the west this
afternoon with the FROPA. Winds could be breezy at times during
the day and especially in and around showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage, timing and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms through the day may differ from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 06/26/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms today into tonight, and
again on Saturday and Sunday.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC