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073
FXUS61 KRLX 251246
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
846 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer today. Chance for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and with a cold front Wednesday. Chances of showers
and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 843 AM Tuesday...

Other than a few tweaks to the sky cover forecast this morning,
current forecast remains on track.

Quite a complicated forecast in the near term period. Convection
over the midwest this morning should gradually weaken as it
approaches our area today, although with that being said, will still
expect showers and storms to potentially affect the area, perhaps SE
Ohio and KY zones most likely, as there could be additional
convection fire this afternoon along any outflow from complex over
midwest. As of this writing, much in the way of severe not
anticipated for our area, and bulk of that potential looks to lie to
our west.

As of 615 AM Tuesday...

Storm complex over the northern Midwest/Great Lakes region is
holding together prompting severe thunderstorm watches to be
issued across Michigan, Indiana, and NW Ohio. Convective-
allowing short range models show it holding together through the
morning as it traverses Ohio, but ultimately weakening
significantly as it reaches our forecast area, encountering a
lingering eastward sliding area high pressure.

Still, the chance for showers and thunderstorms from late
morning through afternoon exists across our SE Ohio counties. A
few storms could be strong or severe. Did update PoPs to keep
timing accurate for any showers or thunderstorms that may pop up
across our SE Ohio counties later.

As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Very comfortable temperatures this morning with lower humidity
as high pressure remains overhead. These temperatures will be a
bit on the cooler side and below normal for this time of year.
Expecting lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s for the lowlands
and 50s in the mountains. Dense river valley fog will likely
form this morning as winds are going calm and temperatures fall
under clear skies. Models however are starting to suggest this
activity will be confined to the mountain valleys.

Temperatures today look to rise back above normal with this
surface high in place and southwesterly flow picking up after
sunrise. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s will be common
across the lowlands; while the mountains will range anywhere
from the mid 70s to the high 80s.

While the forecast area will remain dry through the morning,
a complex of storms over the Upper Midwest associated with a
southward moving disturbance will approach the area by
afternoon. Models are starting to hone in on increasing chances
for some showers and thunderstorms later this morning/early
afternoon as the energy approaches. This activity looks to be
mostly confined to southeastern Ohio.

The main question is reserved for late this afternoon and into
the evening. CAMs are starting to suggest that the
aforementioned complex of storms will hold together as it moves
southward across Ohio. High pressure at the surface will allow a
bit of defense providing a slight cap, even as it shifts off
eastward, but MLCAPE values look to be between 1,000 and 2,000
J/Kg during peak heating. If the cap is lost and no showers
early today disrupt the environment, then thunderstorms (a few
could be severe) will be more of possibility later this
afternoon and evening.

The main threats with any storms that form will be damaging
winds and small hail. SPC has hoisted a marginal risk for
severe weather this afternoon for a part of southeastern Ohio
which includes Perry and Vinton counties, as well as portions of
Athens, Jackson and Morgan.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

A cold front and an upper level trough will bring showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Models still
differ on the handling of prefrontal energy and precipitation.
This prefrontal convection could be critical to whether enough
energy builds for severe weather. MesoNAM soundings showing many
soundings with over 2000 effective layer CAPE with some dry air
in the mid levels and freezing levels of 13000 to 13500. This
indicates a good potential for damaging winds and large hail, if
the prefrontal energy allows for sufficient heating.

Some models indicate enough remaining moisture for scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while
others indicate a drier solution. Will keep some small mountain
POPs, with a bit better chances in Virginia. More seasonable
temperatures will return for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
temperatures will again climb back above normal for this time of
year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are once again
possible, although most of the region will remain dry.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching cold front will
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on
Saturday. Models have a cold front pushing through Saturday
night or Sunday, with continued differences in timing between
the models.

More seasonable air can once again be expected on Monday behind
the cold front. Once again, some models indicate enough
remaining moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the mountains on Monday, while others indicate a drier
solution.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

Visible satellite showing river valley fog this morning, though
most terminals remain unaffected, except for EKN which is
reporting LIFR VIS/CIG. VFR takes back over after any fog
dissipates under clear skies by ~12-13Z this morning. High
pressure nearby keeps the area dry and mostly clear through the
morning until at least early afternoon.

There is a chance for some showers and storms this afternoon
with a passing disturbance, but this looks to remain confined to
southeastern Ohio until tonight into Wednesday morning. Any
storms that form across SE Ohio could be strong to severe with
damaging winds and small hail. PKB will to be the closest
terminal to this activity, but should remain unaffected.

Winds will be mostly calm this morning, picking up out of the
southwest at a light pace after sunrise. Could be breezy at
times mid-morning with mixing.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers and thunderstorms could be more
numerous and cover more locations than advertised this
afternoon.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday
night, and again on Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...SL/LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC