-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
054
FXUS61 KRLX 191611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1211 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure system exits northeast tonight, allowing a few
rain showers or storms to develop this afternoon. Dry and mostly
quiet weather returns Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1130 AM Thursday...

Skies cleared across most of the area late this morning.
Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s this
afternoon. Diurnal cu field will likely develop with few
showers or storms mainly along or near the mountains. Previous
forecast remains on track.

As of 200 AM Thursday

Weak surface high pressure shifting toward the area from the
north will not be enough to hold off any chances for shower
and/or thunderstorm activity this afternoon as the upper level
low still influences the region. Around 2000 J/kg of CAPE will
support a few thunderstorms just as yesterday, however the
potential should only be confined to mainly the higher
elevations, but we cannot rule out a few rogue showers/storms
across the lowlands mainly along the Ohio River and east of
there.

Once the afternoon Cu field scatters out by late afternoon
chances of any activity will diminish along with most cloud
coverage for the early evening as upper level ridging moves in
from the west. A quiet night will follow with very weak surface
flow and mostly clear skies which will cause for another
potential day for dense fog, especially across the mountain
valleys.

With plenty of breaks in cloud coverage today temperatures will
be allowed to climb to above seasonable, sort of like
yesterday, but not expecting anywhere to reach above the 80`s
with the mountains staying in the 70`s and 60`s for the peaks
and ridges.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1207 PM Thursday...

The pattern to start this weekend will feature a weakening upper-
level low across northern New England, a ridge over the Ohio Valley,
and another low pressure system developing in the Rockies.
Saturday should be dry for the most part, but there is a small
chance of a few afternoon pop- up showers over the West Virginia
higher elevations with weak shortwave energy passing through
the ridge. We only give this a 20-30% chance of occurring. The
summer- like heat will be back in full force with highs expected
to reach the lower 90s across the lowlands. The more
comfortable spots will be in the higher mountain ridges, where
afternoon temperatures will be in the 70s-80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1208 PM Thursday...

A warm front will pass through the area Sunday into Monday as the
aforementioned low pressure system, which developed over the Rockies
Saturday, tracks eastward. Models are generally dry over our area
for Sunday, with rain chances returning Monday as a stronger mid-
level wave of energy from the aforementioned low approaches
from the northwest. Rain chances will continue into Tuesday as
a cold front approaches from the west. Models begin to diverge
from Wednesday onward, but we opted to forecast near central
guidance, which suggests at least some chances of rain
Wednesday and Thursday next week. After starting the week
unseasonably hot across the lowlands, temperatures may trend a
few degrees below average for mid-to-late week with a potential
upper- level low somewhere over the East. Plenty of uncertainty
in the long-term forecast, so our confidence remains low.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM Thursday...

Models have hit hard on dense fog this morning covering most of
the area. Mostly clear skies and calm wind has allowed for some
patchy fog to develop which may become dense at times affecting
PKB/CRW/EKN. Any fog will lift and scatter out by 13-14Z, most
of the concern is low stratus which is bouncing in/out as CIGs.
An afternoon Cu deck may develop today but will likely scatter
out quickly by the late afternoon becoming mostly clear by the
evening. High pressure builds in from the north but there will
remain some chances for showers and/or thunderstorms mainly
along the mountains possibly affecting BKW/EKN/CKB during the
mid afternoon, but the threat will quickly diminish by the late
afternoon. Any IFR/MVFR low stratus CIGs will lift and scatter
out by 14-17Z. For the overnight, expect potential for more
dense fog as the same conditions will be in place, especially
across the mountain (eastern) sites. Went ahead and added dense
fog to all sites for now but will have to be analyzed better on
later shifts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...

IFR possible in low stratus or fog through Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ