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246
FXUS61 KRNK 191750
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
150 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the
week. This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and
mainly dry conditions. Any rainfall is expected to be isolated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high in continued hot and rain-free weather.

2) Cloud cover will keep high temperatures and thus heat index
values lower than they would be otherwise.

A broad ridge covers the eastern seaboard and extends into the
OH and TN Valleys. It is making some slight progression west as
the main jet stream lifts into Canada. This has allowed an
extensive cirrus shield to build in from the northwest and has
helped limit high temperatures today to within 5 degrees of
normal. Additionally, diurnally-driven clouds had formed mainly
in the mountains, closer to an area of convergence along the
periphery of the ridging to the west, and also in response to
afternoon heating. These diurnal clouds below 20kft will
dissipate this evening.

Tonight and tomorrow, the ridge is flattened to a more east-west
orientation as short wave energy rides over its northern side.
Our hot and rain-free weather will become just slightly muggier
tomorrow with an slight increase in dew points as flow turns
more easterly. Overnight lows will mostly be in the 60s with
highs tomorrow similar to today. Additional periods of
cloudiness will again keep temperatures in check, with heat
indices in the 80s to lows 90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for above normal temperatures.

2) The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in the
mountains as this week ends.

A 597 dam upper level ridge at 500 mb will head southwest across
the Appalachian Mountains on Thursday night and reach the
lower Mississippi River Valley by Friday. A light southerly
breeze from the western periphery of high pressure centered off
the East Coast will help to boost temperatures into the 90s
across the lower elevations during Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures overall will reach up to ten degrees above normal
for this time of year, and the heat index may climb up to 100
degrees along and east of a line from Danville to Lynchburg by
Saturday afternoon.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough will cross over the Rocky
Mountains and approach the central Plains. As baroclinic
energy and synoptic lift increases from the north, the
increasing heat will trigger a growing threat of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms as this week concludes. While a slight
chance of storms exists in Greenbrier County for Friday
afternoon, that chance will expand to all locations along and
west of the Blue Ridge by Saturday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for showers and thunderstorms during
Sunday and Monday from a cold front.

2) Drier conditions may arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday, but
temperatures will still remain quite warm.

Sunday should see a further jump in the chance of showers and
thunderstorms as an upper level trough crosses the Great Lakes.
A cold front will eventually reach the Appalachian Mountains
by Monday to keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms
elevated. Temperatures will dip a little after the frontal
passage, but it should still stay quite warm. Drier air could
arrive by Tuesday from weak high pressure that might linger into
Wednesday. Although rain chances would be reduced overall by
the middle of the week, a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms may exist along the southern Blue Ridge.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Expecting widespread VFR through the 24 hour TAF. Light SE winds
becoming calm tonight and near calm after sunrise Thursday, then
switch to light and ESE. Scattered afternoon cumulus will
dissipate this evening, while scattered to broken cirrus remains
in the area.

Confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Thursday night through Sunday...High pressure will cover the
region. Aside from some morning river fog in the mountain
valleys, conditions are expected to be primarily VFR. Little or
no chance for rain is expected through Friday...then increase
for the weekend. Heat and humidity will also increase for the
weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...SH