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649
FXUS61 KRNK 190736
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
336 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the
week. This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and
mainly dry conditions. Any rainfall is expected to be isolated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Warm and dry. Temperatures about 5 degrees above normal.

500mb (597dm) anticyclone is centered over the northern Mid-
Atlantic...this persistent ridge of High pressure poised to
remain nearly stationary through the near term...amplifying with
time. Clockwise flow around the center (vcnty IAD) of the High
will continue to focus main heat risk from Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes into New England where westerly low level winds will
advect plume of well above normal warmth across areas to our
north. Our forecast area is positioned just south of the
anticyclone with wind flow primarily coming from the southeast
and off the Atlantic Ocean. This will mute our temperatures to
some degree maintaining only minor heat related risks compared
to our neighbors to the north. Temperatures over the next 24
hours across our forecast area will average about 5 degrees
above the seasonal norm, but nothing extreme (yet). Longer range
guidance suggests we will get a taste of this airmass by the
weekend as the center of the upper ridge retrogrades and allows
for a shift to westerly flow aloft and the formation of a lee
trof over the southern Mid-Atlantic. Until then, our weather
should feel seasonally warm for the time of year...skewed
slightly to the above normal range with respect to the
temperature...highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s in the
mountains and upper 80s to around 90 in the foothills and
piedmont.  Dewpoints today and tonight should remain at or
below 65 and may even mix into the upper 50s. This little bit of
drying should be enough to keep the heat index in check...the
temperature generally mimicking the heat index. The dry air is
also not good for CAPE, so not expecting any deep convection for
our CWA today or tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Confidence is high for hot and dry conditions.

A 598 dam upper level ridge centered over Delaware and New Jersey
will control the weather pattern across the Mid Atlantic during
Wednesday night into Thursday. The ridge should slide towards the
southwest across the Appalachian Mountains by Friday. Surface high
pressure will remain situated off the East Coast during this time.
As a result, temperatures will continue to trend hotter with highs
in the 90s becoming more common in the lower elevations as this work
week concludes. The ridge should keep the atmosphere suppressed with
a decent capping inversion preventing any development of showers on
Thursday, and any convective activity on Friday should stay to the
north across central West Virginia.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms during the weekend and Monday.

2) Drier air may arrive by Tuesday.

The heat persists into the weekend, but the upper level ridge will
keep heading southwestward towards the lower Mississippi River
Valley as an upper level trough passes over the northern Plains.
This trough should cross the Great Lakes by Sunday night into early
Monday. A cold front associated with this trough will reach the
Appalachian Mountains during this timeframe. Consequently, the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase on Saturday and
peak during Sunday and Monday. It remains questionable on how far
southward the cold front could advance by late Monday into Tuesday
as it could stall somewhere across the Southeast, but some drier air
may arrive from the north on Tuesday to lower the odds of
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Some patchy areas of fog across the mountain valleys,
particularly at LWB, this morning, otherwise expecting
widespread VFR through the 24 hour TAF.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Thursday Through Sunday...High pressure will cover the region.
Aside from some morning river fog in the mountain valleys,
conditions are expected to be primarily VFR. Little or no chance
for rain is expected through Friday...then increase for the
weekend. Heat and humidity will also increase for the weekend.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM