-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
997
FXUS61 KRNK 181840
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
240 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the
week. This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and
mainly dry conditions. Any rainfall is expected to be isolated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Last of isolated showers/storms in the west this afternoon.

2) Drier and warm Wednesday on tap.

Some very isolated convection has been pulsing in the western
mountains so far this afternoon and has been struggling to
be more than showers though a core or two have been able to
muster enough lift to generate a few lightning flashes/strikes.
The persistent ridge as expected has largely suppressed the
environment given some slight retrograding to the west and
shifting of the more enhanced moisture axis. Wednesday should be
even more dominated by the drier subsidence and have gone
without mentionable pops. Progged max highs for Wednesday look
to be similar to this afternoon and perhaps just shy of a degree
or so.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Confidence is high for hot and dry conditions.

A 598 dam upper level ridge centered over Delaware and New Jersey
will control the weather pattern across the Mid Atlantic during
Wednesday night into Thursday. The ridge should slide towards the
southwest across the Appalachian Mountains by Friday. Surface high
pressure will remain situated off the East Coast during this time.
As a result, temperatures will continue to trend hotter with highs
in the 90s becoming more common in the lower elevations as this work
week concludes. The ridge should keep the atmosphere suppressed with
a decent capping inversion preventing any development of showers on
Thursday, and any convective activity on Friday should stay to the
north across central West Virginia.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms during the weekend and Monday.

2) Drier air may arrive by Tuesday.

The heat persists into the weekend, but the upper level ridge will
keep heading southwestward towards the lower Mississippi River
Valley as an upper level trough passes over the northern Plains.
This trough should cross the Great Lakes by Sunday night into early
Monday. A cold front associated with this trough will reach the
Appalachian Mountains during this timeframe. Consequently, the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase on Saturday and
peak during Sunday and Monday. It remains questionable on how far
southward the cold front could advance by late Monday into Tuesday
as it could stall somewhere across the Southeast, but some drier air
may arrive from the north on Tuesday to lower the odds of
convection.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions through period for most sites. Isolated
SHRA/TSRA potential near KLWB this afternoon so have VCSH,
otherwise cu field mainly 3500-6000 ft for the sites. Could have
some lingering FEW cu overnight, then daytime FEW/SCT cu
Wednesday near 5 kft. KLWB could have morning LIFR cigs/vsbys or
fog Wednesday. Winds mainly under 10 kts out of the SE or east
during the daytimes and calm to light SE tonight.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Wednesday through Saturday...High pressure will cover the
region. Aside from some morning river fog in the mountain
valleys, conditions are expected to be primarily VFR.
Little or no chance for rain is expected through Friday...
then increase for the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM/AB