-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
443
FXUS61 KRNK 200820
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
420 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the
week. This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and
mainly dry conditions. Any rainfall is expected to be isolated.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is very high for continued dry weather.

2) Upper level cloudiness may dim the sun for periods of time.

3) Temperatures will top out slightly above normal, but lack of
moisture in the air will keep the heat index lower than it
would be otherwise.

Welcome to the official start of summer! The summer solstice
arrives at 4:51 PM EDT. The weather certainly supports the
occasion with hazy seasonally hot temperatures.

Similar to yesterday, the weather pattern remains stagnant.
Aside for some high clouds, not much in the way of moisture.
Large upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate regional
weather with subsidence squashing all but a few afternoon
cumulus...deep convection not happening. In spite of the
summer welcoming pattern, easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean
will maintain lower temperatures at 85H and lower dewpoints
across our forecast area compared to the northern periphery of
the upper level ridge where temperatures are baking our
neighbors to the north. Lower dewpoints also mean our night time
temperatures will have a chance to return to something
tolerable for the overnight.

High temperatures today...78 to 85 mountains...86 to 92
foothills and piedmont. Lows tonight 58 to 62 mountains...63 to
67 foothills and piedmont.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for above normal temperatures.

2) The chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in the
mountains as this week ends.

A 599 dm upper level ridge at 500 mb will head southwest across
the Appalachian Mountains on Thursday night and reach the lower
Mississippi River Valley by Friday. A light southerly breeze
from the western periphery of high pressure centered off the
East Coast will help to boost temperatures into the 90s across
the lower elevations during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures
overall will reach up to ten degrees above normal for this time
of year, and the heat index may climb up to 100 degrees along
and east of a line from Danville to Lynchburg by Saturday
afternoon.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough will cross over the Rocky
Mountains and approach the central Plains. As baroclinic
energy and synoptic lift increases from the north, the
increasing heat will trigger a growing threat of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms as this week concludes. While a slight
chance of storms exists in Greenbrier County for Friday
afternoon, that chance will expand to all locations along and
west of the Blue Ridge by Saturday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for showers and thunderstorms during
Sunday and Monday from a cold front.

2) Drier conditions may arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday, but
temperatures will still remain quite warm.

Sunday should see a further jump in the chance of showers and
thunderstorms as an upper level trough crosses the Great Lakes.
A cold front will eventually reach the Appalachian Mountains
by Monday to keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms
elevated. Temperatures will dip a little after the frontal
passage, but it should still stay quite warm. Drier air could
arrive by Tuesday from weak high pressure that might linger into
Wednesday. Although rain chances would be reduced overall by
the middle of the week, a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms may exist along the southern Blue Ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Expecting widespread VFR through the 24 hour TAF. Any morning
fog will be patchy and mainly confined to the river valleys.

Confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Pattern favors dry conditions into Saturday with increasing
chance for storms Sunday into Monday. Overall VFR through the
period aside from any fog at LWB and storms Sun-Mon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM