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487
FXUS66 KSGX 150409
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
909 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Above average temperatures inland on Saturday. Cooler Sunday and
Monday before a gradual warming trend Tuesday through Friday.
Night and morning low clouds will continue along the coast,
spreading into portions of the valleys at times. Gusty southwest
to west winds for the mountains and deserts for this weekend
during the afternoons and evenings.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Evening update...
It was certainly hot in the low deserts today with highs topping
out at 110-115 degrees, though none managed to break their daily
high temperature records. Highs temperatures will increase a
degree or two in the mountains and deserts on Saturday, and by
around 5-7 degrees west of the mountains as the marine layer
becomes more shallow. Areas of moderate to locally major heat risk are
expected for the low deserts with moderate heat risk in the
Inland Empire Saturday. The 00Z KNKX sounding shows the marine
inversion based near 1700 ft MSL, about a 300 ft drop from this
morning. Low clouds will not extend very far inland tonight,
clearly pretty quickly again tomorrow morning with a, dare I say,
sunny Saturday at the beaches?

Previous discussion...
Sunday will be noticeably cooler across the area as a broad
troughing pattern holds over the Western United States. Widespread
cooler conditions will maintain into Monday. In addition to cooler
conditions and increased low cloud coverage, the increase in onshore
flow will generate gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains
and deserts each late afternoon through late evening for the weekend
with gusts to 25 to 35 mph with isolated gusts to around 50 mph in
the northern Coachella Valley below the San Gorgonio Pass.

By Tuesday, guidance is indicating gradual warming will begin for
areas in and west of the mountains. That warming is expected to
spread to the deserts by Wednesday with continued warming for all
areas into at least next Friday. By next Thursday, there is over 60%
chance that above average temperatures will return to the lower
deserts, with chances increasing to over 90% for next weekend. This
is a good indicator that summer is finally settling in, with the
potential warmer weather to continue into early the following week
(week of June 23).
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&&

.AVIATION...
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150335Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds beginning to move ashore in San
Diego County at this hour and will spread up to 15 miles inland by
14Z. 60 to 70 percent chance for CIGs at KSAN, KCRQ and KSNA after
08Z. Cloud bases will be 1000 ft MSL or lower, with 40 percent
chance of IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility. Areas of fog with VIS 1-
3SM expected on higher coastal terrain. The timing of the onset will
likely be 08Z-10z and clearing to the beaches 14-16z.

Mountains/Deserts...SKC with unrestricted VIS through Saturday. W-NW
winds gusting 20-25 knots expected around KPSP through this evening.
Weak to MOD UDDFS expected over and east of the mountains.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Northwest winds may gust to around 20 knots at times in the outer
waters near San Clemente Island each afternoon and evening Saturday
through Monday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions expected.
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&&

.BEACHES...
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Long period south swells will bring surf of up to 6 feet at times
along with increased rip current risk through Monday.
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&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM PDT Saturday for San Bernardino
     and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Saturday for Coachella
     Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near
     Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS/CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG