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334
FXUS64 KSHV 041938
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
238 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Unfortunately, another active short-term is on the horizon, as
another thunderstorm complex looks to move into the region
overnight, and linger through tomorrow afternoon. This MCS will
very much resemble what we`ve been experiencing the last two days,
with it moving into the area from the NW, exiting to the SE. A
slight risk for severe weather remains in place across the region,
as this MCS will be capable of producing damaging winds.

Elsewhere, a moderate risk for excessive rainfall remains in
effect for the overnight hours, as additional heavy rainfall is
anticipated into tomorrow afternoon. Given the saturated soils,
the flood watch remains in effect through tomorrow afternoon, as
it won`t take much for additional flash flooding to occur. 1-3
inches of additional rainfall are possible, with locally heavier
amounts certainly possible given these heavier rainfall rates.

/44/
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

With all that bad news out of the way, there is a glimmer of hope
of dry weather in the long-term. Upper-level ridging will nudge
north into the day on Thursday, shifting the NW flow back to the
north as well. This will result in limited rain chances into the
day on Saturday, before this ridge begins to slightly retreat into
Sunday. So while rain chances during this timeframe will be
limited, high temperatures will begin to skyrocket, with highs in
the mid-90s anticipated by Thursday.

Come Monday, a trough and cold front will begin to work through
the Midwest, with the front extending all the way back into W.
Texas. This front will begin to increase rain chances once again
across the region, with thunderstorm chances returning as well.

/44/
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

For the 04/18Z TAF update, active weather will keep MVFR vis/cigs
through most of the period across most of the airspace. Another
round of VCTS/-TSRA remains likely before the end of the period.
/16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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SHV  74  89  72  94 /  30  60  20  10
MLU  73  87  70  92 /  20  70  30  10
DEQ  68  87  63  92 /  60  30   0   0
TXK  71  88  68  94 /  50  50  10   0
ELD  69  86  67  93 /  40  50  10   0
TYR  73  89  70  93 /  30  30  10   0
GGG  72  88  70  93 /  30  50  10   0
LFK  75  90  72  93 /  10  50  10  10
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&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...16