-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
694
FXUS64 KSHV 120816
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
316 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Wednesday through Thursday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The early morning water vapor imagery indicates the center of the
open trough aloft having shifted into ECntrl TX into SW AR, with
drier air having entrained E ahead of the trough axis into N LA.
Meanwhile, the morning surface analysis still continues to depict
a gradient of theta-e bisecting the SW sections of E TX,
indicative of the drier air that has backdoored SW ahead of sfc
ridging that extends from the OH valley SW into N LA/NE TX. Aside
from a few sprinkles along the upper trough axis between SLR and
GGG as of 08Z, all is and should remain quiet today, as the
trough axis continues to sink SE through the remainder of the
region into Cntrl MS/LA and SE TX. Still can`t rule out very
isolated convection this morning over the extreme SW sections of E
TX in the area of slightly better theta-e, which will be
coincident with weak forcing with the trough axis and the weakening
H700 low responsible for the ongoing convection near and just W
of FTW/MWL.

Elevated cigs should also thin today as the trough sinks SE,
resulting in good insolation such that max temps should again near
the daily norms. Did trend temps near if not a degree warmer than
what was observed Tuesday, although drier air along the base of
the sfc ridge will keep the edge off of the humidity, allowing
temps to quickly fall this evening after sunset given the good
radiational cooling conditions expected. Upper ridging extending
from Nrn Old MX into the Four Corners Region this morning remains
progged to build E into the Srn Plains tonight and into the
Ozarks/much of the region Thursday, with the drier air deepening
as it mixes farther S in wake of the trough`s departure this
afternoon and tonight. Stronger insolation should also result in
hotter temps Thursday, with lower to mid 90s expected areawide,
although heat indices will not be much higher than the ambient air
temps given the dry air in place. If there`s any consolation to
the daytime heat will be the more comfortable evening/overnight
temps in the drier air, with readings falling into the 60s
areawide.

15
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue Friday through much of the
upcoming weekend, as the center of the ridging aloft expands E
across the Ozarks/region Friday, and into the Mid-South and Lower
MS Valley Saturday. Thus, strong subsidence beneath the ridge
will result in max temps climbing into the mid and upper 90s
areawide, with even some isolated locations across N LA/Srn AR
nearing the century mark Saturday. With the upper ridge shifting
farther E for the latter half of the weekend, a SSErly low level
flow will return on its backside with the attendant sfc ridging
shifting farther E as well, with dewpoints and associated RH`s
increasing Saturday night and Sunday. The upper ridge remains
progged to be anchored over the TN Valley and SE CONUS Sunday,
with an influx of tropical moisture associated with an inverted
trough aloft/tropical wave expected to move ashore the SE TX/S LA
coasts Sunday, enhancing the development/inland spread of
seabreeze convection into Deep E TX/NCntrl LA during the
afternoon. Have maintained slight chance/low chance pops generally
S of the I-20 corridor, with the convection diminishing during
the evening with the loss of heating.

A weakness aloft should develop over the region on the backside of
the ridge to the E, supporting a greater potential for scattered
convection over much of the region Monday, where chance pops have
been expanded areawide. Greater uncertainty remains though beyond
Monday given the increased variability of the medium range progs,
with the GFS again trending wet and cooler as it maintains the
weakness aloft longer vs. the drier ECMWF as it tries to
retrograde the ridge back W into the Ozarks/Four State Region by
midweek, and over the Srn Plains Thursday, all the while
maintaining its grip much farther E across the Mid MS Valley to
the Ern Seaboard. Some influence with the weakness aloft is
expected to persist at least through midweek, and when combined
with amply moisture and diurnal heating, should contribute to the
potential for at least isolated to widely scattered convection
over the area through the end of the extended period. This should
also help taper max temps to some extent, maintaining readings
near if not slightly above the daily norms.

15
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

For the 12/06Z TAFs, a mix of BKN mid level and denser high level
clouds will transition largely to high clouds by daybreak, with a
few brief vis reductions possible, but no widespread impacts
expected. The redevelopment of a Cu field looks to begin in the
midmorning hours, defined by FEW/BKN CIGs in the lower VFR range.
Slight chances for thunderstorms across deep east Texas may bring
impacts to KLFK in the afternoon, but confidence is not yet
sufficient to prevail impactful conditions. Light northeast winds
will continue to drop off overnight, attempting to establish a
more true easterly orientation during the day, but not increasing
much above sustained speeds in the neighborhood of 5 kts.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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SHV  93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  88  62  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  89  63  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  90  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  88  59  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  90  68  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  90  66  93  67 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  90  68  93  67 /  20   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26