-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
579
FXUS64 KSHV 022313 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
611 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New UPDATE AND AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380 will be in effect for much of the
ArkLaTex along and west of the I-49 corridor through midnight
tonight. A large complex of thunderstorms is crossing through
north central Texas and south central Oklahoma and will begin
impacting McCurtain and Red River counties imminently. These
storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and hail, as
well as torrential rainfall leading to potential flash flooding.
Grids and zones ave been updated and sent to reflect the attendant
increase in PoPs, thunder and severe probability.

/26/
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday Morning)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Focusing on Tonight through Monday morning...

Dense overcast from early this morning has started to scatter out
and a cumulus field has been left in it`s place across the region.
Though local temperatures struggled to climb this morning, the
introduction of diurnal heating from extra sun exposure has allowed
for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80`s across areas of
the Ark-La-Tex. Similarly, a tight moisture gradient south of the FA
this morning has quickly advanced northward, supporting Td values
in the low to mid 70`s.

To the west, a complex of thunderstorms across north Texas and SW
Oklahoma has formed into a broad MCS that is advancing east-
southeast, approaching in and around the DFW metro over the next
few hours. Given mesoscale parameters depicting rapidly increasing
instability locally, and the stubborn NW flow regime across the
southern US, this will need to be closely monitored for downstream
impacts. Given the lack of model handling, mesoanalysis will be
crucial to determine the potency, and impact that this complex has
on local convective coverage this evening.

Overnight, and again depending on any impacts from what occurs from
the convection out west, conditions should trend quiet to start, but
once again hi-res CAMs and HREF solution depict possible MCS
development from convection firing along a dry line along the TX/NM
border, working east, and entering the Four State sometime close to
sunrise, if not an hour or so earlier. While convection is expected
out west, uncertainty surrounds the additional extracurricular MCS
formation that CAMs have proposed. Therefore, have worked lower end
PoPs for the time being to cover the possible development through
the morning. Evening guidance and real-time analysis of convective
initiation in that region should help assist overnight thinking.

On the temperature front, once again expect lows in the upper 60`s
and low 70`s across the region. Close T/Td relation following
passing storms and saturated soils will support patchy fog through
the mid to late morning. As a result, have added this to the
forecast through sunrise, though it could exist a few hours after.
This will again depend on the possible secondary convective
development by the morning which again remains uncertain. Highs
tomorrow will again approach 90 deg F for many as the pattern
remains in place to start the new week.

RK
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday afternoon through the end of the period...

Another severe risk will cover the Ark-La-Tex Monday afternoon as a
Slight Risk has been drawn up across almost all of the SHV
responsible counties and parishes. Quick atmospheric recovery,
along with a persistent NW flow regime, will once again support
the initiation of thunderstorms northwest of the FA, that may
evolve into another bowing MCS, developing a strong cold pool, and
ultimately work into the Four State Region through the mid to
late afternoon and evening of Monday. Model agreement in the short
run is something to take away here as guidance has struggled with
convective initiation and evolution of recent bowing MCS events
over the last week. That being said, main concern here will be the
threat of damaging wind, hail and the chance for a tornado or
two.

Looking beyond Monday, the pattern continues to suggest that NW flow
will hang around through about mid-week as upper ridging builds to
the west across the Four Corners. The subtle influence of the ridge
however may be enough to support a daily increase in MaxT`s as
highs approach the middle 90`s by the end of the period before a
progged frontal passage stops temps from climbing any higher.
Still some uncertainty in the long range on just how much of an
impact the front will bring, but for now it remains something to
look forward to. At the same time, given the NW flow pattern, can
not rule out additional long track bowing segments through the
week. This pattern is one of uncertainty, and something to take
day to day.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MVFR conditions will continue this evening, although an
approaching MCS over SE OK/N TX will spread SE into the region
this evening, likely affecting much of the region even through a
portion of the overnight hours. Have better timed VCTS with tempo
thunder mention for the affected terminals this evening based on
current extrapolation of the convection, while also adding VCTS in
for ELD by 04Z. This convection may affect MLUby/after 06Z, but
low confidence precludes mention attm, and will address with
amendments or possible the 06Z TAF issuance. This convection
should also leave behind a cold pool bndry over Deep E and SE TX
into WCntrl LA overnight, which will be the primary focus for
isolated to scattered convection once heating increases during the
day Monday. The cold pool associated with the evening/overnight
convection should delay the formation of IFR/low MVFR cigs through
much of the overnight hours, and not occurring until 12Z or later
Monday. Have delayed cig mention until this time for all but
TXK/ELD, where additional scattered convection may develop over SE
OK/portions of SW AR through mid to late morning. Any low cigs
should gradually lift by mid to late morning, with VFR cigs
returning areawide by midday, persisting through the afternoon.
Did add VCTS for the E TX terminals by 20Z, as scattered
convection should again develop by mid-afternoon across Lower E
TX/NCntrl LA. SE winds 4-7kts, except VRB and gusty in/near the
convection, will become S 6-12kts after 15Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  76  91 /  30  30  10  20
MLU  71  89  73  90 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  69  84  70  87 /  70  40  20  10
TXK  72  88  72  90 /  70  40  20  10
ELD  70  87  71  89 /  20  40  10  10
TYR  73  88  74  92 /  60  30  20  10
GGG  73  88  74  90 /  50  30  10  10
LFK  72  90  74  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...15