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124
FXUS64 KSHV 021150
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
650 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Quiet Sunday morning going with fair skies north of I-20 and
anvil cirrus over the south from distant central TX thunderstorms.
Air temperatures are coolish in the wake of last evening`s heavy
rainfall with mostly mid to upper 60s and a few sites around 70
degrees. Many sites remain calm with patchy fog in a 1 to 3 mile
restriction at the worst over NE TX, where skies have mostly clear
longest. Radar is likewise quiet, but a few small showers are
sliding east across Toledo Bend this hour. We will likely see a
batch of morning low clouds for several hours.

The short term models all agree we will see a push from the SW
today across east TX and our Parishes south of I-20. The boundary
laid down recently separates higher 70 dew points that will
spread inland with heating. Our KSHV 88D VAD wind profiler is
showing SW flow 20-30KT up to near 8kft, before swinging around
much lighter NE flow. So this sea breeze look will lift inland
late this morning and through this afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms. The SPC has a Marginal Risk up to Tyler and over to
about Alexandria for their day 1 outlook. This will wind down
with the setting sun, but coverage up into NE TX near Texarkana
will make a run for Ruston and Monroe with just a bit more QPF.

Just quick passing rains today and nothing really widespread
heavy. Skies will thin out again this evening with morning lows
looking a little warmer with more lower 70s around. The GFS is
looking at another nocturnal push down the OK/TX Red River valley,
that will edge into our I-30 corridor before daybreak on Monday.
This activity will continue eastward over S AR before falling
apart mid to late morning. The NAM is very similar early, but
with nothing much in the heat of the day, while the GFS and ECMWF
continue with TX/LA afternoon coverage until sunset.

Overall, less organizational push compared to what has been the
case for us lately in the parading MCSs. The WPC has sparse small
change amounts with tenths and quarters of an inch here and there.
There are a few tiny areas with a half to maybe inch in a few
bullseyes, bringing up a Marginal Risk matching up closely with
the SPC outlook. Meanwhile, both today and tomorrow will see
afternoon highs very close to average for early June in the upper
80s. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

As we continue into the new work week things finally appear to see
less rain storms affecting our forecasts and just more June
sunshine with more lower 90s spreading around with plenty of
humidity. And we can expect the morning lows to continue warming
midweek with less nocturnal convective activity and just some
diurnal coverage. The SPC has another Marginal Risk for Monday`s
nocturnal push and then we are general for Tuesday into Wednesday.
Nothing yet in the days 4-8 with low confidence at this time. The
medium range models look at one last weak push perhaps early on
Wednesday for at least our I-30 corridor. Then we wait with just
isolated activity for Thursday to ramp up again on Friday with a
weak frontal passage. A 1017mb high pressure area will push into
the middle MS River Valley and that appears to have a nice dry
weekend in store for us next attempt along with a little less
humidity and highs back to upper 80s in many cases. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024


For the 02/12Z TAF period, still dealing with some patchy fog this
morning with light winds and rain-soaked soils contributing to fog
development. In addition, low stratus will also likely persist for
a few more hours with MVFR/IFR cigs and possibly LIFR through 15Z.
With increased mixing/warming by late morning, expect conditions
to return to MVFR and eventually VFR closer to midday with cigs
lifting to around 3.5-4Kft and scattering out a bit more. Winds
will trend more SE today between 5-10 kts with low confidence in
any convection. Therefore,decided to forego any mention of SHRA or
TSRA in this TAF issuance and will re-evaluate with the 18Z TAFs.

/19/
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHV  90  74  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
MLU  88  71  90  73 /  20   0  20  10
DEQ  88  69  87  70 /  10  20  40  20
TXK  89  72  90  72 /  10  10  30  20
ELD  87  70  89  71 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  88  73  89  74 /  30  20  30  20
GGG  89  73  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
LFK  90  74  89  74 /  40  20  20  10
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&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19