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024
FXUS63 KTOP 181724
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1224 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
  and evening with a small risk for severe winds.

- There is greater severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon
  and evening.

- Thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday night.

- Warm temperatures continue until mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Recent water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough sliding east
across eastern Montana with an associated cold front subjectively
analyzed from eastern North Dakota south-southwest into western
Nebraska. This front continues southeast into eastern Kansas today
with modest convergence along it. With another warm a day in good
insolation and dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s, little
convective inhibition should be present along the front in the mid
to late afternoon. Most CAMs show at least isolated thunderstorm
development in eastern Kansas, slowly spreading southeast with time.
With deep-layer shear less than 25 knots, pulse storms are expected
with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg
supporting a downburst wind concern. This activity should diminish
soon after sunset. Still appears northern areas could get
precipitation from an MCS as it moves east-northeast out of
northwest Kansas overnight though MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg and a
modest low-level jet should keep severe weather in check.

Models coming into somewhat better agreement with the severe weather
potential for Sunday afternoon and evening. Convection forms in
western Kansas in the mid to late afternoon along a dryline as a
subtle upper wave moves through. This convection grows upscale to a
fairly linear form as it progresses east, supported by MUCAPE around
1500 J/kg and a moderate low-level jet. Severe winds may again be
the main concern with large and perhaps a few brief QLCS tornadoes
possible. With much of the day expected to be dry, a warm and breezy
Sunday is anticipated.

Southerly winds should return to most locations Monday though mid-
level warming brings the potential for persistent low cloud but
likely limited daytime thunderstorm activity. The main concern
likely depends on upstream convection though little in way of
forcing for ascent is apparent. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and
MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg would bring severe weather concern Monday
night into early Tuesday if storms can maintain themselves this far
southeast.

Tuesday afternoon and evening bring stronger forcing from a strong
jet max pushing a shortwave as associated cold front through Kansas.
Capping will again be present but at least scattered thunderstorms
are anticipated with a severe weather concern with around 2500 J/kg
of pre-frontal MLCAPE.

An overall more tranquil period should come late Tuesday night
through Thursday with Pacific surface high pressure moving through
and the effective surface front south of Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all sites during the 18Z TAF
period. A cold front will move through KMHK and KTOP, shifting
winds from the southwest to the north this afternoon before
washing out near KFOE. An isolated storm could develop near the
boundary, but chances are too low for mention in TAFs.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Teefey