-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
710
FXUS64 KTSA 090306
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1006 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms were ongoing this evening along a
sfc boundary across portions of southwest Missouri. Storms have
recently begun to develop further west into far eastern Kansas and
would expect this trend to continue as low level wind shear
increases across the area. Some of this activity may scrape far
northeast Oklahoma late this evening into the overnight hours with
a limited risk for severe weather.

An additional complex of storms is forecast to arrive from the
west later tonight, moving along the sfc boundary near the OK-KS
border. While CAMs have been consistent in keeping much of the
storm activity near or north of the border, they have also
advertised outflow winds from these storms pushing well into NE OK
late tonight/ early tomorrow morning. Given warm 850-700mb temps
over much of our area/ increasing inhibition, do believe any storm
activity should remain confined to the northernmost row(s) of
counties in our CWA and have left the current PoP forecast as is.
Any storms tonight will have low potential to produce strong to
marginally severe wind gusts. Additionally, given the persistent
signal for outflow winds across NE OK, did bump winds up a fair
amount by 12z (potentially gusting 20-30 mph), mainly along/ north
of I-44/ Hwy 412. Otherwise, aside from minor changes to reflect
current trends, the remainder of the ongoing forecast appears to
be in good shape at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A few showers occurring across NE OK this afternoon ahead
of a cold front that is currently across S KS. Very warm and
humid afternoon in progress with low to mid 90s across much of E
OK and sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.

Shower and storm chances will mainly remain across the north
overnight in the vicinity of the boundary as an upper wave moves
across KS. Boundary will get a push into the area later
tonight, but level of convective reinforcement will likely
determine how far south it gets into the area tonight. At this
time will keep lower end PoPs roughly along and north of highway
412.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Cold front to make its way through the area Sunday, with cooler
temps and drier air filtering in behind the boundary. Slightly
higher shower and thunder chances will translate south with
boundary trough the day, but will keep low PoPs approximately i-40
and south Sunday night. Sfc ridge axis settles across the midwest
early next week which will keep the drier air across the area for
a few days, while keeping the better rain chances west and
southwest of the area. Another upper wave move across the area
Tuesday into Wednesday, and will include lower end PoPs as low
level moisture increases on southerly winds ahead of this
feature. Dry, but warmer conditions are expected for the latter
portion of the week as upper ridging appears sufficient enough to
keep showers and storms north of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is thunderstorm
potential at most of the sites. There is low confidence in on-
station impacts at any of the terminals, whether it be with storms
later tonight that are expected to mainly skirt the Kansas and
Missouri borders or with additional development forecast along the
front after daybreak and into the afternoon hours. Will carry a
VCTS mention at all sites except TUL/RVS - although the chance of
thunderstorms even there is nonzero. Will continue with the PROB30
mentions at the far NW AR sites around sunrise given a more
southeastward movement/development of storms in western Missouri
featured by CAMs. Behind the front, expect a period of MVFR
ceilings and a shift to a north to northeast wind direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  85  63  84 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   74  93  67  86 /  10  30  20  10
MLC   73  92  66  83 /  10  30  30  30
BVO   69  82  58  83 /  30  30  10  10
FYV   71  87  59  83 /  20  40  10  10
BYV   69  80  58  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKO   73  88  65  82 /  10  40  20  10
MIO   69  79  58  81 /  50  50  10  10
F10   72  88  65  82 /  10  30  20  20
HHW   72  90  69  82 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...43
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...22