-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
052
FXUS64 KTSA 080239
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
939 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 933 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

An earlier cluster of showers and isolated storms that developed
southward into far northeast Oklahoma has dissipated, and now
attention turns to potential for a complex to affect part of the
area late tonight. An axis of relatively higher moisture at 850 mb
extends from west central AR into southeast KS, and this seems to
be a favored area for a weakening convective cluster to move
between 06z-12z tonight. This is basically in line with the
current forecast and see nothing in the 00z model data to warrant
significant changes.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A boundary will sit north of the area Saturday with breezy southerly
flow bringing very warm and humid air into the area. High
temperatures Saturday will jump into the 90s, with some areas as
warm as the upper 90s. Low level moisture will be excessive, with
the 925 hPa specific humidity near the 99th percentile for the
date. Dew points in the low to perhaps mid 70s will result in heat
indices nearing or exceeding 100F for much of the area.

MCS activity will force the boundary into the area Sunday with
a 20-50% chance of rain. As the boundary moves in, model soundings
show too much warm and dry air above the surface layer for surface
based convective initiation. This means any precipitation that
does develop will rely on the more marginal elevated instability,
making it less certain as to whether any meaningful rain or
thunder will occur. Cooler and somewhat drier air will move in
behind the boundary with highs falling into the upper 70s Monday.
This boundary will then lift back north by Tuesday. This will
bring one more chance of rain to the area, focusing south of I-40.
Model guidance does not agree on the specifics of this
progression, with uncertainties with respect to the amount of dry
air intrusion and the location and intensity of precipitation that
develops Monday- Tuesday. Notably, most of the cooler and wetter
solutions are from the GEFS model suite, but not all. Accordingly,
did not stray far from the NBM.

Ensemble guidance is in better agreement for the middle to end of
next week with strong high pressure building over and west of the
area. Cluster analysis still shows some ensemble variability, with
the GEFS mostly showing less amplified solutions while the EPS and
CMCE are split with respect to a more amplified ridge across the
west or northern Plains. Either way, this will cause another period
of hot and humid weather with limited rain possibilities for the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Isolated showers have developed across far northeast Oklahoma
early this evening, but are not expected to impact any TAF sites
in the short term. Additional showers/thunderstorms, that are
developing to the west, will begin to approach portions of
far northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas after midnight. Given
the limited coverage expected, PROB30 groups were only included at
KBVO/KXNA/KROG. A few lingering showers will be possible Saturday
morning with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the
forecast period with gusty south winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  96  72  86 /  20  20  10  40
FSM   71  96  73  92 /  10  20   0  20
MLC   75  94  74  91 /   0   0   0  20
BVO   73  96  69  82 /  20  20  30  40
FYV   71  93  70  85 /  20  20  10  50
BYV   69  92  69  80 /  20  30  20  60
MKO   74  94  72  87 /  10  20  10  30
MIO   72  91  69  79 /  30  20  40  60
F10   74  94  72  88 /  10  20   0  30
HHW   71  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...12