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026
FXUS64 KTSA 070904
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
404 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Low level flow returns out of the south today as surface high
pressure center over the region exits off to the east. Within this
return flow...the low level thermal gradient is expected to move
eastward with 850-mb temps generally in the 19-23C range this
afternoon across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
Thus...above seasonal average temperatures are forecast again
today with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s over the CWA.

A weak vort max is forecast to push eastward along/near the
Oklahoma Kansas border this afternoon...which along with
increasing warm advection...could create an isolated storm or
two. However...due to such isolated coverage will keep PoPs across
Northeast Oklahoma below mentionable criteria. For most...an
increase in scattered/broken cloud cover may be the only result of
the vort max passing through.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

While low level high pressure exits during the day
Friday...aloft...the 700-500mb high pressure is expected to be
slower moving with pressure center remaining over Texas into
Saturday. With the mid/upper levels over the CWA still influenced
by high pressure to the south...a shortwave progged to move out of
the Rocky Mountains today should remain just north of the CWA
tonight as it moves through the Plains. In response...the greater
precip chances should also remain just north of the CWA tonight
into Saturday. At this time...the southern periphery could reach
far Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas late tonight
into Saturday. Instability looks to be mainly elevated at this
time and organized severe potential should stay mainly north of
the CWA...closer to the shortwave.

During the day Saturday...a frontal/surface boundary is progged to
set up near the Oklahoma Kansas border in the wake of the exiting
shortwave and become nearly stationary through the afternoon
hours. Along and south of this boundary...breezy southerly flow
will aid in moisture pooling along this boundary with warmer and
more humid conditions expected for Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas. High temps in the low/mid 90s should be common across
the majority of the CWA with heat index values around 99-103 deg
across Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas. These
conditions could create an isolated diurnal shower/storm along the
boundary Saturday afternoon and as such will carry a slight chance
PoP for counties near the Kansas and Missouri borders.

A second shortwave is forecast to move more into the region
Saturday night into Sunday with the mid/upper high pressure having
exited off to the east by this time. This wave will help give a
push for the frontal boundary to sag southward through the CWA
Sunday and Sunday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase
near the Kansas Missouri borders Saturday evening and then spread
southward through the day Sunday. An additional upper level trof
axis is progged to move southeast through the Plains Sunday night
into Monday which will help to continue shower/storm chances for
the CWA. Precip chances look to exit Monday evening with the
departing upper level trof axis. There remains some uncertainty
with latest model data with the timing of the precip tapering off
and a slight chance may continue into Tuesday before precip fully
exits.

An unstable atmosphere along and south of the frontal boundary
Saturday and Saturday night could allow for limited severe
potentials with large hail and locally damaging wind the main
threats. Locally heavy rainfall could also become a concern with
the ample amounts of moisture pooling along the boundary. Limited
severe potentials could extend into Sunday with the boundary
sagging southward farther into the CWA before exiting Southeast
Oklahoma Sunday night.

Behind the frontal boundary...cooler conditions are forecast
across Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas Sunday and
then across the CWA for the first part of next week. High temps
Monday/Tuesday could be in the lower 80s for much of the CWA.
These conditions look to be short lived as low level southerly
flow and increasing heights spread back into the region during the
second half of next week. Warmer and more humid conditions become
possible again near the end of the forecast package late next
week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Isolated showers noted across SE OK and this trend may continue
overnight through early morning across E OK within a weak warm
advection pattern. Overall coverage should remain very low with
little to no aviation impact. Any ceilings will remain VFR. Winds
increase Friday afternoon and storms will develop west and north
of the local region. Friday evening storm chances at any terminal
remain too low to warrant mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TUL   91  75  95  72 /   0  10  10  30
FSM   92  72  95  74 /   0  10   0  10
MLC   92  75  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   88  73  95  69 /  10  20  20  50
FYV   89  71  92  70 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   89  71  92  70 /   0  20  20  40
MKO   92  73  95  73 /   0  10   0  20
MIO   88  72  92  69 /  10  30  20  50
F10   91  74  94  72 /   0  10   0  10
HHW   92  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07