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116
FXUS63 KABR 210810
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
310 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- A strong cold front will track across the area this morning,
  creating cooler and windy conditions today. Peak wind gusts will
  be between 35 and 45 mph west of the James River Valley this
  morning through mid afternoon.

- Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures Sunday into
  early next week. Above normal temperatures return Wednesday and
  stay around for the rest of the week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
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Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

An upper level shortwave trough extending from central Canada to
North Dakota will just skirt the CWA this morning, with a secondary
wave sliding across the area tonight. A weak northwesterly flow will
then set up on Sunday.

At the surface, as of 07Z, a cold front was just east of the
Missouri River, and will continue to track eastward through the
early morning hours, looking to exit the CWA by 15Z. A fairly tight
pressure gradient will set up behind the exiting front. Wind speeds
have already begun to pick up across north central South Dakota, and
expect to see gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph this morning through
about mid afternoon, mainly west of the James River Valley.
Sustained winds do not look to meet Wind Advisory criteria, and
though gusts may be close in a few spots, they do not look to be
widespread enough to warrant an advisory. Therefore, will just
highlight the mention of some stronger winds in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook product. High pressure settles in over the area
later this afternoon through the day Sunday, resulting in lighter
winds and cooler conditions. No precipitation is expected during the
near term period.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s. Highs on
Sunday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Sunday evening, there is an upper level low to our south over NE and
KS and another to our northeast over northern MI. These will both
move east through the day Monday as a trough moves in from the west.
This trough corresponds to a surface level low over southern Canada.
The cold front from this low will pass through the region Monday
evening into early Tuesday. An upper level ridge builds in behind
the trough with surface level high pressure. There looks to be some
sort of low pressure aloft to our northwest on Saturday along with
some low pressure to our south. More details on this will have to
wait for future model runs.

The long term still looks to stay dry, with temperatures increasing
to 10-15 degrees above normal by the middle of next work week.
Overnight lows will also be in this 10-15 degrees above normal
range. With the exception of Tuesday with the passing cold front,
winds during the period are expected to be from the south. Winds are
not expected to gust to more than about 25 mph during the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. A cold front
will be making its way eastward across the region through the early
morning hours, with northwest surface winds becoming gusty. Low-
level wind shear is also forecast in KATY through early morning, and
to a lesser extent at KABR around and shortly after sunrise.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin