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FXUS63 KABR 091121 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
621 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50 to 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday
afternoon through Tuesday morning. Some storms along and west of the
Missouri River may become strong to severe Monday afternoon and
evening.

- There is a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
into Wednesday night, mainly along and east of the James River
Valley. Some storms may become strong to severe.

- Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday-Friday of next
week, with highs mainly in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 452 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Surface high pressure will strengthen today into tonight keeping the
region dry with seasonable temperatures. As the high shifts farther
south and east late tonight into Monday morning, shortwave energy
will ride the upper ridge into western SD, and southeast winds will
increase ahead of an approaching low. A few showers (<20% chance)
may make it as far east as north central SD on a weak llj before
drying up by 12z Monday. The sfc front and upper low will push
toward central SD between 21z and 0z and could bring strong to
severe storms with it, though chances increase Monday evening. There
is a marginal to slight risk (1 to 2 out of 5) of severe storms
along and west of the Missouri River with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 452 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An active weather pattern can be expected through the long term
portion of the forecast.

The period begins with an upper level trough and surface low
pressure system passing across the region Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Instability and shear are best along and west of the
Missouri RIver, with instability waning further east. Still appears
as though a few strong to perhaps severe storms will be possible
along the frontal boundary over the western CWA, with the severe
threat diminishing further east. The convection should be east of
the CWA by 15Z Tuesday, with dry conditions possible until
Wednesday.

On Wednesday, an area of low pressure embedded within nearly zonal
flow aloft may bring the next round of thunderstorms, mainly over
the eastern half of the CWA. With modest instability and deep layer
shear, strong to perhaps severe storms may be possible, depending on
timing. The latest deterministic GFS suggests the storm will
progress across the CWA during the morning hours, with others have
storms in the afternoon and evening hours.

By the end of the work week, an upper level trough over the Pac NW
will cause southwesterly flow over the northern plains. A couple low
pressure systems moving through the region will bring rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. The deterministic ECMWF suggests a wet
Father`s Day weekend, which is supported by the CPC`s 6-10 day pcpn
outlook that favors above average pcpn.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through tonight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise