-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
987
FXUS61 KALY 020247
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1047 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring tranquil weather this evening through
Wednesday, although temperatures begin to warm through the next few
days. Hotter and more humid weather is expected for the second half
of the week and next weekend with increasing chances for showers and
a few thunderstorms, especially during the afternoons and evenings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
.UPDATE...As of 1050 PM EDT...Very little changes necessary with
this update outside of minor adjustments to ensure consistency
with recent temperature obs. A tranquil night lies ahead with
high pressure dominating nearby. See the previous discussion
below for additional details on tonight`s forecast.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
As of 3:50 PM EDT...Current GOES 16 WV imagery shows a
positively tilted upper trough axis tracking off to our east
through New England, with subsidence and mid-level drying moving
into our area from the west. At the surface, a 1025 mb are of
high pressure is located over the Great Lakes and will continue
to build eastwards through the evening and tonight. With
increasing subsidence, earlier cloud cover has broken up, with
skies now partly to mostly sunny region-wide. Temperatures are
within a couple degrees of daytime highs, with our higher-
elevation areas in the upper 60s with 70s for the valleys.

CLearing continues to expand from the valleys into the high
terrain this evening and early tonight as the surface high
builds in from the west. There could be a few passing mid/high
clouds early tonight with a weak upper impulse and an area of
diffluent flow aloft, but skies overall should be mostly clear
with the surface high moving directly overhead after midnight.
This will allow winds to become calm, setting the stage for very
favorable radiational cooling conditions. Therefore, confidence
was high enough to undercut NBM lows by a few to several
degrees. Overnight lows will range from 40s for the high terrain
to 50s in the valleys. A few upper 30s can`t completely be ruled
out in the sheltered areas of the ADKs. Additionally, some
patchy radiation fog is possible in some of the typical places
between around 06z and sunrise.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday and Tuesday night...The surface high will be overhead
Tuesday morning, with a cold start to the day. Upper ridging
builds over the region with continue subsidence keeping our
weather quiet and tranquil. With rising heights aloft, tomorrow
will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the 70s (terrain) to
low to mid 80s (valleys). The surface high moves offshore
tomorrow afternoon and night, but will be close enough for
temperatures to drop off quickly after sunset. However,
increasing clouds ahead of an upper-level disturbance will slow
the rate of cooling especially after midnight. Given our
proximity to the high, we still went a degree or two below the
NBM with lows in the 50s for most areas.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Wednesday looks dry as well with
high pressure to the southeast and the upper ridge axis moving
overhead. Highs will be a couple to a few degrees warmer than on
Tuesday despite the fact that there will be a few more clouds
around. Wednesday night, a warm front will approach from the
west, bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to
the region after midnight, mainly north and west of the Capital
District. Any thunderstorms should remain elevated so severe
weather does not look to be a concern for this timeframe. Winds
will pick up Wednesday into Wednesday night, and there will be
more clouds around, so overnight lows will be warmer with 60s
for most locations and a few upper 50s for the outlying high-
terrain areas.

Thursday, a surface low tracks well to our north with the
trailing cold front tracking through our region from west to
east. With our area in the warm sector, it will be warmer and
more humid across the region. Highs will be mainly in the 70s
for the terrain with 80s for the valleys. Despite some valley
areas seeing temperatures approach 90, it looks like we should
fall short of heat advisory criteria (95F). However, there will
be some isolated showers and thunderstorms with and ahead of
the cold front Thursday afternoon, especially along and south of
I-90. Forcing for ascent looks to be relatively weak, however,
so overall coverage of storms does not look very impressive.
Nevertheless, people with outdoor plans for Independence Day
should keep an eye to the sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday night and Friday...The cold frontal boundary looks to
wash out and stall south of our region before lifting back north
as a warm front Friday afternoon or night. Due to the more
diffuse nature of the front, there are some disagreements from
the different sources of guidance as to its exact placement and
how quickly it lifts back north. With the front nearby, there
will be plenty of clouds around and we will keep slight chance
PoPs in the forecast south of I-90 closer to the front for
Thursday night and Friday. Thursday night will be warm and muggy
with lows mainly in the 60s, with some high-terrain areas again
dipping into the upper 50s. Friday will feature highs well into
the 80s for valley areas once again, although dew points should
be a few degrees lower than on Thursday.

Friday night through the weekend...The warm front will lift
northwards across our region Friday night as an upper low and
associated surface cyclone track into the Great Lakes region.
This will result in increased chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms Friday night possibly into early Saturday morning.
Saturday, we are in the warm sector. It will remain hot and
the humidity will be noticeably higher. Chances for showers and
storms increase again Saturday afternoon as the system`s cold
front slowly approaches from the west. The upper low looks to be
sheared out as it tracks into southern Canada Saturday and
Sunday, with the surface low weakening as well. This may allow
the front to stall near our region for the second half of the
weekend. Therefore, will maintain slight chance PoPs Sunday,
although storms look to be less widespread than on Saturday.
High pressure building in towards the end of the long term
period will result in a drying trend, although temperatures
remain warm Sunday and Monday with highs well into the 80s to
around 90 for valley areas.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
this evening with high pressure encroaching from the Great
Lakes. Sky coverage has continued to decrease throughout the
area such that skies are now primarily clear and will remain as
such throughout the duration of the 00z TAF period. Therefore,
VFR conditions will remain steady. The only site where these
conditions could be disrupted is KGFL where light mist/fog could
develop between 09-12z tomorrow morning. Confidence is not high
in this element of the forecast, however, as low-level humidity
should be on the lower end. But with prime radiational cooling
conditions expected tonight, this is certainly a non-zero
possibility.

Winds throughout the period, as previously stated, will follow a
gradual downward trend before becoming light and variable.
Sustained speeds of 2-6 kt are likely.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Gant/Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Gant