-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
363
FXUS61 KALY 011029
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
629 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring some clouds and isolated
showers to portions of the region this morning, followed by
clearing this afternoon. High pressure will then bring fair
weather tonight through Wednesday along with a warming trend.
Independence Day will be very warm and humid, with a stray
afternoon thunderstorm possible in a few locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 615 AM EDT, showers have increased in coverage
across the eastern Mohawk Valley, the Saratoga region extending
to Albany. These showers are in association with an upper level
shortwave currently tracking across the region, in combination
with some enhanced low level convergence and moisture pooling
within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region.

Over the next 1-2 hours, we expect these showers to persist and
begin to expand south and east of the Capital Region into the
central Taconics and Berkshires. Some showers/sprinkles may even
extend into the northeast portions of the mid Hudson Valley and
into Litchfield County, CT. Some showers will also expand into
the eastern Catskills during this time, while shower coverage
gradually decrease across the upper Hudson Valley region.

As the upper level trough and reinforcing cold front pass
through, shower coverage should decrease by mid to late morning
from NW to SE, with some clearing then expected this afternoon,
first within valley areas from north to south, then eventually
across higher terrain areas.

So, with this update, have increased PoPs/QPF and expanded
coverage into the eastern Catskills, northern mid Hudson Valley
and Litchfield Hills through mid morning to account for latest
radar trends and NYS Mesonet obs.

[PREVIOUS 336 AM EDT]...As of 340 AM EDT, low clouds have
expanded across much of the region outside of the mid Hudson
Valley, southern Litchfield County CT and SE VT. Isolated
sprinkles were occurring across some higher terrain areas of the
southern Adirondacks/southern VT.

Upper level trough and reinforcing cold front will be moving
across the region this morning, keeping areas of low clouds and
isolated showers/sprinkles across the region. As core of mid
level cold pool (H500 temps ~ -18C) moves through, shallow
instability may allow for a brief uptick in shower coverage,
especially for areas near and south of I-90, and east of I-87.

Increasing subsidence and gradual mid level warming from west to
east in the wake of slow mid-level trough passage should allow
for clouds to decrease in coverage this afternoon.

It will be breezy with fairly deep mixing to ~H750, allowing for
north winds to gust up to 25-30 mph at times, especially within
the Hudson River Valley. High temperatures should reach 75-80 in
most valley areas by late afternoon, while remaining cooler,
generally mid 60s to around 70 across higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure approaches the region tonight, allowing for winds
to become light to calm amid a dry air mass with PWAT`s dropping
to 0.50-0.75". This should allow temps to drop off into the 50s
for most areas, with 40s across higher elevations and portions
of the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley. Would not be
surprised if a few upper 30s occur within the most sheltered
areas of the SW Adirondacks.

Fair weather with gradual warming expected for Tuesday into
Wednesday, with just occasional high/mid level clouds streaming
through, especially Wednesday. Highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s Tuesday, and lower/mid 80s Wednesday for most valley
locations. Tuesday night lows in the mid 50s to around 60,
except around 50 across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

An approaching warm front from the west may bring some
showers/embedded thunderstorms late Wednesday night for
portions of the southern Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley region, with
some possibility reaching as far south/east of the Capital
Region and Lake George/Saratoga region into southern VT. It will
be warmer due to clouds and some wind, with lows generally in
the upper 50s to lower/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak cold front associated with an area of low pressure located
across northern Quebec will cross the region on Thursday,
Independence Day. The best forcing looks to be to our north and
south. As a result, only expecting isolated showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Otherwise, it will turn out to be a very warm day with highs in the
mid-80s to lower 90s across the valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s
across the higher elevations.

This front looks to stall Thursday night into early Friday just to
our south before lifting back northward as a warm front Friday into
Friday night. Then, an area of low pressure tracking northeastward
over the Great Lakes will send a cold front through our area on
Saturday. This will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast both Friday and Saturday. Very warm and humid
conditions will continue both days as well with highs once again in
the mid-80s to around 90 in the valleys with upper 70s to lower 80s
across the higher elevations.

Weak high pressure may build over the region on Sunday. While Sunday
looks drier compared to Saturday, continued warm and humid
conditions could result in a pop up shower or thunderstorm during
the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 12z/Tue...A few showers/sprinkles may linger until
13z/Mon mainly at KALB as an upper level disturbance crosses the
region. Some MVFR cigs may also linger for a couple of hours.
Then, high pressure will build into the region with decreasing
clouds and VFR conditions through much of the TAF period. Some
patchy fog may develop at KGFL toward daybreak Tuesday.

Wind will become north to northwesterly at 10-15 kt with gusts
20-25 kt through this afternoon. Wind will diminish through the
evening becoming calm overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun