Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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984 FXUS61 KALY 290144 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 944 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will depart off the coast of New England tonight, allowing for increasing clouds, with temperatures not as cool as last night. It will be mostly cloudy, breezy and more humid on Saturday with an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms through the day. Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours, is expected on Saturday night for much of the area. A lingering shower or thunderstorm is expected on Sunday with warmer temperatures, before drier weather returns for the start of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...Main change with this update was to expand likely PoPs eastward to include the Capital District around or shortly after sunrise, due to a surge of moisture along with warm advection. The past few runs of the HRRR have consistently shown a batch of showers moving E-NE from central overnight. Most of the showers should be light into early Sat morning, although a few embedded brief heavier showers may occur in some spots. .PREV DISCUSSION[0751]...Tranquil/dry conditions in place across the region early this evening. Dewpoints remain low in the 40s to mid 50s range, resulting in lower than usual humidity for late June. Satellite imagery shows high/mid level clouds increasing from the west. Made some minor adjustments based on latest obs, with no significant changes with this update. As high pressure starts to depart off to the east this evening, some mid and high level clouds (currently seen over western New York) will spread towards the area for this evening into tonight. In addition, a southerly flow will start to increase across the region for the overnight hours. With the increasing clouds and the breeze, temps won`t be as cool as last night, with lows in the 50s. A warm front over the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic will start moving northeast for late tonight. With increasing moisture within the southwest flow aloft, an area of light rain will be developing across western and central New York overnight. This may spread towards the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley for late in the overnight and towards daybreak on Saturday. Amounts through sunrise on Saturday look fairly light and limited to northwestern parts of the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... On Saturday, the warm front will continue lifting northeast towards the area. Our region will be in broad south to southwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance over the Great Lakes. The low level jet will be around 50 kts, allowing for plenty of moisture advection and warm air advection from the southwest. Our area will remain on the northern side of the surface boundary through much of the day on Saturday, so surface-based instability looks fairly limited. Based on the 12z SPC HREF, our area may finally start to see some minor amounts on instability by Sat night (mainly under 1000 J/kg) and it`s unclear still if this will be surface-based or not, as the timing within the diurnal cycle may allow for this to elevated. 0-6 km bulk shear will be increasing thanks to the strong flow aloft, with values in the 40 kt range. Plenty of moisture will be increasing across the region with PWATs rapidly rising to around 2.00 inches by Sat evening. However, the moist profile will keep lapse rates rather poor across the region. Some light rain or showers will be ongoing for far northern areas early on Sat morning. However, as these continue to track eastward towards New England, they will be weakening and dissipating as they run into a drier air mass. However, the approaching warm front will allow for another batch of showers to spread towards the area from the west for Wed afternoon or early evening. Most of this activity is expected to impact western and northern areas. There may some embedded heavier bursts, but the bulk of this looks fairly light. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy through Saturday with temps only in the 70s. As our area gets into the warm sector and we finally get some instability in place, there will be the potential for some heavier downpours on Sat night, as the pre-frontal trough allows for additional areas of convection to develop. CAMs had different ideas on the exact placement and coverage of this precip, so this is somewhat uncertain. However, there could be some heavier downpours on Sat night for parts of the region, and ponding in urban/poor drainage areas will be possible, especially if repeated rounds occur. Can`t rule out a rogue strong wind gust due to the decent shear and high moisture in place, but limited instability will keep this threat fairly isolated. Temps will remain mild and muggy in the mid 60s to low 70s with much stickier dewpoints than recent nights. On Sunday, the surface cold front will be passing through the region from west to east. It may cross western areas earlier in the day, but will cross southeastern areas in the afternoon. Enough heating should occur ahead of the front to allow temps to reach into the 80s, especially southeastern areas. While the morning should be fairly quiet, some convection may develop ahead of the boundary for the afternoon hours. Exact coverage is still in question, but enough instability and shear could be in place for some stronger storms before activity heads towards the coast for late in the day. SPC has a marginal to slight risk across the region, although the greatest threat may be just southeast of the area, although it will depend on the exact timing of the front. Behind the boundary, cooler and less humid air will return to the region for Sunday night with clearing skies. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly quiet weather is expected through the long term period. High pressure will be passing over the area for Monday into Tuesday. This will allow for dry conditions with fairly clear skies. Dewpoints will remain comfortable in the 50s. After highs in the 70s on Monday, they will rise into the 80s on Tuesday. Mon night will likely be another clear and cool night with lows in the 40s and 50s once again. By the middle of the week, temps and humidity levels will be rising as our area gets back into the return flow on the backside of the departing high pressure area. Highs will be well into the 80s for Wed through Fri, with dewpoints into the 60s. At this point, heat index values look just below advisory criteria, but will need to watch closely in case temps/dewpoints look higher. It should continue to be dry most of the time, although some spotty showers (or perhaps an isolated t-storm) will be possible during the late week, mainly in the diurnally favored afternoon or evening hours. At this point, forcing and dynamics look weak, so the potential for strong storms looks low at this time. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the night with increasing high then mid level clouds ahead of an approaching warm front. The warm front will bring showers Saturday morning from the KGFL-KALB corridor starting around 09z-11z. These showers will likely stay north of KPOU, but could get near KPSF so will mention VCSH there. Cigs will gradually lower to MVFR levels Saturday morning due to increasing moisture, but could remain VFR at KPOU for several more hours. Periods of showers will likely continue Saturday afternoon from KGFL-KALB as the warm front pushes north/east. There will be a better chance of showers developing at KPSF by Saturday evening, while the majority should still remain north of KPOU. Conditions are likely to be MVFR at all sites prior to 00z Sunday. Winds will be variable around 5 kt or less through the evening, becoming south-southeast around 5-10 after 06z Saturday. Winds on Saturday will be southerly and steadily increase to around 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt. Outlook... Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...JPV