-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
884
FXUS64 KAMA 151121
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Panhandles tonight as
an upper-level trough moves across with favorable forcing for
ascent. The primary threat will be heavy rain given PWATs around
1.2" to 1.4" and high freezing levels, but gusty winds can`t be
ruled out. A relative lull in the activity may occur later tonight
and into the early daytime hours, but additional lobes of vorticity
may move in and help develop more showers and thunderstorms.

There should be a longer lull in the showers and thunderstorms
through the mid to late morning through much of the afternoon hours
which should be enough time for the atmosphere to recover from the
morning rain. Additional perturbations in the flow aloft are
expected to cross the southern Rockies and into the Panhandles
toward the mid to late afternoon hours, supporting a chance for
thunderstorms to develop in the eastern half of the combined
Panhandles. CAMs generally suggest MLCAPE values will be between
1250 J/kg to as high as 1750 J/kg along with 30-35 kts effective
shear. The wind profile seems to be marginally supportive of a
transient supercell, but multicells/bowing segments may be more
prevalent. Temperatures aloft look rather warm with 500mb
temperatures around -5C which should limit the hail threat. However,
large hail would still be possible, especially with any transient
supercell that can develop. DCAPE values will be around 1200 J/kg to
1400 J/kg, suggesting gusty to damaging winds looks to be the more
unconditional threat with any thunderstorm in that afternoon to
early evening hours. With all that said, will have to watch the
potential for rain and clouds to linger through the morning hours
which may present an issue with warming up enough to break the cap.
Otherwise, additional thunderstorms that originate from the Rockies
may move into the western Panhandles in the evening hours, and other
thunderstorms may develop in the northern Panhandles/SW Kansas in
response to a strengthening nocturnal LLJ. Convection would be
elevated by this time, but a transient supercell would again be
possible with large hail not out of the realm of possibilities.
Shower and thunderstorm activity may continue through most of the
night, but should taper by Sunday`s sunrise.

There should be a nice break through much of Sunday as temperatures
warm into the mid to upper-90s across the area. Some CAMs suggest
some thunderstorms may develop in the central Oklahoma Panhandle
toward the late afternoon hours, but confidence is low at this time.
Breezy conditions are expected Sunday night which should help keep
lows across the area in the mid-60s to low-70s.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A seasonably impressive trough dips down into the Pacific Northwest
on Monday and continues eastward through Tuesday. Temperatures on
both days will be quite hot, with highs in the mid to upper-90s...
some locations may reach 100 degrees. A shortwave trough embedded in
the southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to move in toward the late
afternoon hours, but there will be some questions about whether or
not the cap will be able to break. If the cap can break, damaging
wind gusts would be the primary threat, but NBM gives a 10% PoP at
best in the northern combined Panhandles which seems reasonable at
this point. Tuesday, yet another embedded shortwave trough
approaches the Panhandles in the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms
would be possible, primarily in the northern combined Panhandles.
Given high DCAPE values, damaging wind gusts would be the primary
threat.

Heights aloft rise beyond Tuesday and steering flow becomes very
weak. Models suggest a multi-day period of southeasterly surface
winds will commence which would help draw in relatively rich
moisture. Monsoon-like thunderstorms look possible through the rest
of the work week, and the potentially early start of the
thunderstorms should help keep temperatures around average for this
time of year.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible near KGUY later this morning, but
confidence is too low to include TS mentions at this time. An
additional round of showers and thunderstorms are possible later
this afternoon at all sites, but confidence is too low to include
TS mentions at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Amarillo TX                92  67  93  70 /  30  30   0  10
Beaver OK                  93  67  98  69 /  30  30  10  10
Boise City OK              92  64  98  67 /  10  20  10   0
Borger TX                  95  69  98  73 /  20  20  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              94  66  97  71 /  20  30   0  10
Canyon TX                  91  65  93  69 /  30  30   0  10
Clarendon TX               90  67  92  69 /  20  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 92  63  97  66 /  10  20  10  10
Guymon OK                  92  65  96  68 /  20  20  10  10
Hereford TX                92  66  95  69 /  30  30   0  10
Lipscomb TX                93  69  96  70 /  30  30  10  10
Pampa TX                   91  67  93  69 /  30  20   0  10
Shamrock TX                92  69  94  70 /  10  20   0   0
Wellington TX              94  70  95  71 /  10  20   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52