Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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236 FXUS64 KAMA 241934 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 234 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ...
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(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Thunderstorms developing over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will try to make a run at the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle tonight. Have added in a small chance of rain for this area for the possibility of storms making it in. Another batch of showers and thunderstorms over southwest Kansas may make it into our northeast CWA overnight, so have added some low pops there as well. A low level jet, combined with low level moisture and an upper level disturbance may all help to keep thunderstorms going through the night. A surface trough is expected to drop southeastward across the northwestern parts of the CWA for Tuesday. This trough could be a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Have gone ahead and added small chances of rain for this possibility. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be around 105 in the eastern Panhandles and in Palo Duro Canyon, so will continue with the heat advisory for these areas. We may need to expand the heat advisory for the Canadian River Valley as well as temperatures at Boys Ranch and Borger should get close to 105.
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&& .LONG TERM ...
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(Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The first half of the long-term is bound by a fairly consistent pattern: a robust upper-level ridge centered over the vicinity of the Panhandles leading to widespread highs around 100 degrees. Models suggest that weak impulses round the edge of the ridge which introduces a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms from the late afternoon hours and through the evening. Friday looks to be the hottest day of the long-range with 850mb temperatures as high as 35C to 36C if the GFS is correct. This would certainly suggest there is potential for a Heat Advisory at least in Palo Duro Canyon, if not elsewhere. Models suggest that the upper-level ridge will get flattened some Friday night by a rather impressive upper-level trough in the Upper Midwest. This could lead to a weak cold front moving into the Panhandles on Friday night with a weak shortwave trough that develops off the Colorado Rockies, introducing a chance for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms in the northern and central Panhandles Friday night. NBM is quite excited about precipitation chances Saturday night with 50-60% PoPs already for much of the area. This is in response to a potential secondary push of the "cold" front and another weak shortwave trough moving across, as well as some rather impressive moisture content... 24/00z ECMWF and 24/12z GFS showing around 1.5" to 1.7" PWATs. That said, this is a rather subtle shortwave trough thus currently think the NBM PoPs are overdone for being this far out and without a more robust forcing mechanism. The expectation at this time is that it`s more likely than not that this will not be an area- wide event, and that the PoPs will become more refined with time. Vanden Bosch
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&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Southerly winds at 13 to 17 knots with higher gusts will decrease to the 10 to 15 knot range this evening. Winds will then pick up again at the AMA TAF site to near 20 knots by mid morning. Thunderstorms may try to make a run at the DHT and GUY TAF sites, but confidence in any one thunderstorm affecting the TAF sites is very low, so will not mention them at this time. Skies are expected to remain VFR outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX 74 100 69 100 / 10 20 20 10 Beaver OK 75 104 69 98 / 20 20 20 10 Boise City OK 68 100 66 98 / 20 20 10 20 Borger TX 77 107 70 105 / 10 20 30 10 Boys Ranch TX 74 105 70 102 / 10 20 20 10 Canyon TX 72 99 68 99 / 10 20 20 10 Clarendon TX 73 99 71 99 / 10 10 20 10 Dalhart TX 68 101 66 100 / 20 20 20 20 Guymon OK 71 102 68 99 / 10 10 20 10 Hereford TX 73 101 68 100 / 10 20 20 10 Lipscomb TX 76 106 70 101 / 20 20 20 10 Pampa TX 74 101 70 101 / 10 20 20 10 Shamrock TX 74 104 72 102 / 10 10 10 10 Wellington TX 75 105 74 104 / 10 10 10 10
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&& .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ005-010-015- 020-317. OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ003. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...15