-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
701
FXUS64 KAMA 212357
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
657 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to expand from south to
north across the Panhandles today.  Residual moisture from TS
Alberto continues to provide ample PWAT values and allow for bursts
of heavy rain with these showers.  Several areas have already
measure 0.01-0.10" in just a matter of minutes as the storms passed
over.  But they are still scattered in nature, and therefore these
are still hit and miss showers.  Happy mesonet managed to pick up
0.10" in just 4 minutes.  12z sounding PWAT`s here at Amarillo
showed 1.43" which is just under the climatological maximum of 1.49"
for today.  The PWAT`s are expected to increase this evening to the
1.70-2.00" range, so even higher rain rates area still possible.
Showers/storms should start to diminish after sunset and loss of
daytime heating this evening.

Overall, upper level patter is shifting as high pressure that was
over the eastern CONUS is now retrograding west.  An upper level
trough skirting across the northern CONUS will help suppress the
ridge and provide more of a zonal flow to us tomorrow.  This will
also push the moisture from the TS further west into NM.  While we
do expect warmer and drier conditions under this zonal flow, we
still have quite a bit of moisture in the low level from recent
rains, and dewpoints have been abnormally high in the afternoons for
this time of year.  Should we over perform on dewpoints tomorrow
then with the warmer temperatures in store, we may be able to break
the stronger capping thats associated with high pressure.  Also,
there may even be some subtle shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow
that if timed properly with afternoon heating could support extra
lift for any storms that try to form.  Tomorrow night as the upper
trough shifts further east to the Great Lakes region, we can expect
that the high will start to build towards the Four Corners and
transition us to a more northwest flow, which could support
afternoon storms each day in the extended.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Mainly upper level ridging will dominate the south-central US
through the extended period bringing warm temperatures in the lower
triple digits back to the FA. Tuesday is looking to be the warmest
day in the extended thus far.  Moisture in the mid to upper levels
will stick around mostly with at least 10 to 20 PoPs for some
parts of the combined Panhandles each day in the extended period.
With the high pressure building to the west later in the extended
some perturbations or shortwaves will possibly bring better
chances for storms as early as Wed night, but could be more Thu
night. Have stayed with the NBM PoPs for now which introduce 30
PoPs across the western half of the combined Panhandles Wed night.
However, this may be leaning towards the EC solution. If the GFS
these PoPs may be too high for Wed and may favor Thu night
instead. The NBM still has 30 PoPs in the west for Thu night at
this time as well.

Maybe Mon, but especially Tue, wide spread temperatures in the 100s
are expected with the mid to upper level ridge centering and
building over NM. H85 temperatures may warm to near 32 to 33 degrees
C. There is some uncertainty to how hot it will actually get as high
level clouds could impact overall solar heating and the fact that
portions of the area have seen several inches of rain over the past
few weeks. Soil moisture could potentially hold back the normal
heating the area sees. Such areas are the central and eastern OK
Panhandle with the recent 5" to 7" of rain two days ago. Palo Duro
Canyon may even see 105 on Tue. Lately though the canyon floor has
not been heating quite as much as it potentially can due to the 6"
plus they received during the end of May and beginning of June. Will
still be watching for the potential for a Heat Advisory for PDC come
Tue. With dewpoints in the 60 a Heat Index of 105 will still be
possible as well for PDC and even areas in the central to eastern
combined Panhandles.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are dwindling currently
and should cease no later than 02z. Overnight hours are expected
to remain calm with fair weather. A further round of rain showers
and thunderstorms will impact portions of the panhandles late
Saturday afternoon to evening. KDHT is currently the only TAF site
to reflect Saturday rain showers but KAMA and KGUY still have a
small chance to be impacted as well. Conditions will remain VFR
across the panhandles and at all terminals for the rest of today
through Saturday. However conditions may drop to MVFR with the
passage of a rain shower, even brief IFR cannot be fully ruled
out if the shower is intense enough. Gusty winds this evening will
weaken for the overnight hours before becoming gusty again at
during the mid to later morning hours of Saturday. These winds
will then weaken again for the afternoon and evening hours of
Saturday. As the winds weaken KGUY may loose its wind direction
for Saturday. Lastly hot and moist conditions will lead to
increasing density altitude at all the airfields.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
Beaver OK                  72  97  69  97 /  10   0  10  10
Boise City OK              67  93  65  93 /  10  20  10  30
Borger TX                  73 100  73 101 /  10  10  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              69  96  70  96 /  10  10  20  10
Canyon TX                  67  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               68  93  71  94 /  10   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 67  94  66  94 /  10  20  20  20
Guymon OK                  69  96  66  95 /  10  10  20  10
Hereford TX                68  94  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
Lipscomb TX                73  98  72  99 /  10  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   70  95  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                70  96  72  99 /   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX              70  96  72  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98