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469
FXUS64 KAMA 230907
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
407 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
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(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Other than a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, quiet weather looks to prevail today and tomorrow
across the region. High temperatures will continue to slowly climb
up into the 90s to just over 100 degrees over the coming days.

Early this morning, scattered high clouds remain across the region
and temperatures have dropped into the upper 60s to mid 70s so
far. Unfortunately, this morning may be one of the cooler mornings
of the next week as the first long lived heat wave of the summer
is likely and will begin today and tomorrow. As a H300 trough digs
across the Great Lakes today, the upper level high pressure will
slowly be pushed off to the west today, but with the center of
high pressure still to the south of the forecast area. With high
pressure still in place over the Panhandles, the overall flow
aloft will remain weak with H500 winds forecast to be around 10 to
15 kts. Ample mid level moisture should remain in place across the
area today for mid to high level clouds to remain across the area
and a few showers or storms may be able to form with any subtle
disturbances or convective temperatures being hit this afternoon.
Current thoughts are that if any convection gets started today, it
will be similar to yesterday with only a few showers or storms
developing during peak heating late this afternoon. With that
being said, have kept PoP mentions fairly low for today with only
the west having a 15 to 25 percent chance of seeing a shower or
storm develop. High temperatures today will continue to slowly
rise and some of the known hotter areas may reach the triple digit
mark today.

Going into Monday, the center of high pressure should continue
slowly drifting off to the west and this pattern will start to
show some semblance of west to northwest flow aloft. The flow will
start to look very typical for summer time here in the southern
US, with very weak winds aloft. Main difference from today to
Monday looks to be a leeside low should be able to develop by mid
day across the higher terrain and winds will be breezy out of the
southwest. This will aid in starting to dry out the surface with
dew points a bit lower across the region on Monday. These winds
will also aid in bringing in stronger WAA and H850 temperatures
should increase over 30 Celsius by late afternoon. More locations
will likely hit the triple digit mark on Monday with this current
set up expected across the High Plains. Will need to keep a close
eye on Palo Duro Canyon, as temperatures may once again reach Heat
Advisory criteria on Monday afternoon. Currently not expecting any
showers or storms on Monday given the southwest winds beginning to
dry out the lower levels and any weak disturbances look to remain
west of the CWA based on latest guidance.

Muscha
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Little change was made to the long term periods compared to what
was assessed in the numerical weather models 24 hours ago. The
aforementioned upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to
be the overall dominant feature in our weather pattern from Tuesday
through Saturday. This will result in above normal temperatures
during this time frame. Given the strength of this ridge, high
temperatures across many locations will likely approach or exceed
100 degrees on one or more days of the extended periods. Heat
Index values may approach or exceed 105 degrees at times, most
likely on Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Friday across parts of
the area. Heat Advisories may be needed on one or more of those
days as well. Precipitation chances Tuesday through Saturday will
strongly depend on the strength of the upper level high pressure
as well as how much of our forecast area sits beneath it. Most
medium range models continue to suggest periodic meandering of the
ridge axis during the extended periods. NBM pops and temperatures
look reasonable given the forecast synoptic pattern and were
accepted with no adjustments necessary for this package.

02
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Light winds
around 10 kts or less are forecast for most of the next 24 hours.
Some mid to high level clouds will remain across the region with
this TAF issuance. Some light showers or storms may develop around
00z, but confidence in a storm moving over the sites is too low to
mention in the TAF at this time.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                96  73  97  74 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  97  73 101  74 /   0  10   0  10
Boise City OK              95  69  98  69 /  20  10  10   0
Borger TX                 102  76 104  78 /  10  10   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              98  73 100  74 /  20  20   0   0
Canyon TX                  95  70  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               96  71  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 96  68  99  67 /  20  20   0   0
Guymon OK                  97  71 100  71 /  10  10   0  10
Hereford TX                96  70  98  74 /  10  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                99  75 101  76 /   0  10   0  10
Pampa TX                   98  74  98  74 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX               100  73  99  74 /   0  10   0   0
Wellington TX             100  73 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05