-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
095
FXUS64 KAMA 200545
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The widespread rainfall seen this morning has significantly
lessened in coverage as the outflow boundary has pushed out of the
CWA. Thunderstorms may re-develop later this afternoon in New
Mexico and move into the western Panhandles if there is enough
instability. It`s hard to get a grasp on the extent of the
potential convection, if it happens at all, given that the models
have not handled convection well over the past 18 hours or so.
But some lobes of vorticity may move into the northwestern
combined Panhandles later this afternoon and into the evening
which may provide enough forcing to produce some thunderstorms in
the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles . Will have to
wait and see what happens with the ongoing showers and convection
and which part of the area stays dry, and if there are any areas
that can destabilize in time for the next potential round later in
the day. If any thunderstorm can tap into an unstable
environment, the primary threats would be damaging winds and large
hail as well as heavy rainfall that could cause flooding issues.
This would be most favored in the far western combined Panhandles.
Again, overall confidence is low regarding the potential for
additional thunderstorm development, and even lower for any
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms later.

Tonight should be dry, but southeasterly surface winds and southerly
850mb winds should help continue to pump in moisture related to
Tropical Storm Alberto in the western Gulf of Mexico. There may be
some weak forcing that works into the western TX Panhandle Thursday
afternoon. If thunderstorms can develop, they should remain well-
behaved given very weak instability but heavy rain will certainly be
possible.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The extended will be a gradual transition starting with the south
to southwest flow as we remain west of an strong high pressure
setup over the Ohio River Valley, and by the end of the extended,
we`ll be just east of a new ridge of high pressure that will be
set up over the Four Corners. Overall the best chances for rain
look to be on Sunday evening and again on Tuesday evening, but the
chance of rain is the just about every day. The best chances for
little to no precipitation looks to be Saturday and Monday.

Overall, High pressure to the east will quickly break down as a weak
upper trough moves across the northern CONUS.  This will take us
from south to southwest flow on Friday to a more zonal flow
Saturday, and this is why Saturday looks less favorable for showers
or storms, but there`s always a chance that we see some subtle
shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow and we get a few storms to
develop.  As we move into Sunday and early next week the upper
trough will begin to amplify over the Great Lakes Region, which will
help build a Four Corners ridge over the western COUNS.  As a result
we`ll transition to northwest flow and that would bring a better
chance of showers and storms on Sunday.

Monday, the upper trough will push off to the east coast and that
will allow for the ridge to strengthen, which in turn will weaken
the northwest flow regime over our area.  Therefore, Monday may not
be as favorable for showers or storms, but as noted before, there`s
always a possibility for some embedded waves to trigger a storm or
two.  By Tuesday a new trough will enter the Great Lakes Region and
the ridge will shift a bit more west allowing for a slightly better
northwest flow component, but a more pronounced shortwave looks to
provide a better chance of scattered to possibly widespread storms
across the area.

Overall, temperatures will mid 90s to lower 100s for the extended.
The exception would be on Friday as we`ll be in the upper 80s.  Main
concern we need to watch will be if the NBM dewpoints are too low.
Typically, dewpoints right around 60 on these hot days would be on
the high side, but given all this recent moisture, we need to
consider the possibility that if our dewpoints hold in the 60s or
higher then we could be looking at some heat index`s that could
approach the 100-110 range.  Current forecast for Palo Duro Canyon
already is over 100 degrees on Monday and Tuesday (without a heat
index component), and it`s very close to 100 on Sunday.  So would
not be surprised to see temperatures and/or heat index`s in the Palo
Duro Canyon area to hit the 105 (Heat Advisory) mark on Monday and
Tuesday, and maybe even on Sunday.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. Some sct to
bkn low clouds near MVFR levels through 12Z, but cigs should
remain at VFR. Winds will be out of the south and southeast at
5-15 kts with higher gusts at times.

Meccariello
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Amarillo TX                83  66  87  68 /  10  20  10   0
Beaver OK                  87  67  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              84  62  83  65 /  20  10  10   0
Borger TX                  89  69  92  71 /  10  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              86  67  87  69 /  20  20  10   0
Canyon TX                  81  66  85  66 /  20  20  10   0
Clarendon TX               81  67  86  68 /  20  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 85  62  84  64 /  20  20  20   0
Guymon OK                  86  64  87  68 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                83  66  87  66 /  20  30  10   0
Lipscomb TX                87  69  90  71 /   0  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   85  68  88  69 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                85  69  90  69 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX              85  70  90  70 /  10  10   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...29