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079
FXUS64 KAMA 162026
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
326 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
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(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

As of early this afternoon, latest satellite was showing
relatively clear skies for the Panhandles as the area continues to
recover from the showers and thunderstorms from last night. Down
at the lower-levels, southwesterly flow is slowly taking over with
the formation of a lee-side surface low off the southern front
range. This low will not only keep the Panhandles breezy this
afternoon but allow for us to keep warming up with many locations
expected to be in the 90s before sunset. This heat up may be
enough to help trigger convection later this afternoon and
evening, or at least help sustain any developing storms that form
off the mountains to the west. If any storms manages to stay
sustained, then there will be a potential for it to turn severe
over the Panhandles thanks to MLCAPE values running around 1000 to
1500 J/kg. However, storms may not be able to hold on for long
given most models are expecting the area to lack any shear in the
area. Instead, the more likely scenario will be isolated pulse
type thunderstorms that will produce strong straight line winds
rather then large hail. This idea is also further backed by model
soundings presenting high amount of DCAPE over the Panhandles
with most areas seeing 1700 J/kg or more. There is potential for
more showers and thunderstorm to form late tonight, with a couple
of CAMs also presenting the idea. However, confidence is not high
enough to adjust from the dry scenario the NBM has.

As for Monday, look for much the same in terms of conditions as
breezy southwesterly winds hold and CAMs see the potential for
another round of thunderstorms that afternoon. The only main
difference is that tomorrow afternoon may see a weak dry line set
up over the western Panhandles, which in turn will push storm
chances further east. In terms of severe potential, conditions are
much the same as today with the biggest threat once again being
straight line wind gusts. Meanwhile to the west of the dry line,
conditions will look to finally dry out enough that potential is
present for elevated to low end critical fire weather in far
northwest Panhandles that afternoon. However, fuels may keep any
fire related products from being issued for the area. The reason
being is that specific area has seen decent rainfall as of 2 to 3
day ago with some areas seeing rainfall totals nearing one inch.
Given these recent rainfall amounts as well as the former high
relative humidity values, fuels may not respond or even inhibit
fire starts. Otherwise, look for temperatures to stay warm with
many locations staying in the 90s to near triple digits.

Scoleri
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An upper level trof over the western states and a strong upper
level ridge of high pressure across the eastern states places the
forecast area in southwest flow aloft for Tuesday and Tuesday
night. While low level moisture will likely remain in place across
the region, a strengthening mid level capping inversion could
inhibit thunderstorm development across most of the OK and TX
Panhandles Tuesday afternoon and night unless some sort of minor
impulse embedded in the overall flow pattern is able to assist in
overcoming the mid level warm layer to warrant development of some
thunderstorms that afternoon and evening. Given high uncertainty
how strong the capping inversion might be, have opted to leave NBM
pops intact for parts of the OK Panhandle Tuesday night with the
caveat that if the cap ends up weaker, then more of the area will
need pops Tuesday afternoon and night.

For Wednesday through Saturday, medium range models and ensemble
members suggest the upper level ridge will expand westward to
encompass the southern states from Arizona to Florida as the
western states upper level trof weakens and translates eastward
across the north central states. That said, the overall strength
of this upper level ridge will dictate how much moisture, if any,
advects northwestward into our area from expected development of a
possible tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
early this week. The 12Z ECMWF holds on to a slightly stronger
ridge and keeps the deep moisture well south and southeast of our
forecast area without much of a northwestward component and,
therefore, is generally dry Wednesday through Friday. The 12Z GFS
along with some of its ensembles is a bit more optimistic by
bringing some of the moisture into our region for later Wednesday
into Friday and is one of the wetter models. Other medium range
models are generally in between the two aforementioned weather
models. Forecaster confidence is low as to which model solution
will eventually verify this far out in time so have leaned with
the NBM pops for Wednesday through Saturday. Expect further
refinements to the forecast during the coming days as models begin
to converge on a common solution regarding the upper level pattern
and eventual strength of the progged sprawling high pressure for
the middle to latter part of the week.

02
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Surfaces winds will likely remain breezy to gust for most of the
afternoon and evening thanks to a lee-side surface low off the
southern portions of the Front Ranges. Look for speeds to be in
the 20 to 25 mph range with gust nearing 35 mph at times. Low
chances at thunderstorms still exist this afternoon with KDHT and
KGUY still having the better chances of seeing impacts. However,
latest models runs are still not to enthusiastic about the
possibility with some only giving a 15 to 20% chance at an
isolated storm. Have left the vicinity showers present in the TAF
package for now, given that confidence is not high enough for
anything else. Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold outside of
any storm interference.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                94  70  94  70 /  10  20  20  20
Beaver OK                  98  70  96  71 /  20  20  10  10
Boise City OK              99  68  98  67 /  20  20  10  10
Borger TX                  99  73  98  73 /  10  20  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              97  70  98  71 /  20  20  20  20
Canyon TX                  93  69  93  68 /  10  20  20  20
Clarendon TX               92  70  91  70 /  10  10   0  10
Dalhart TX                 98  67  98  66 /  20  20  20  10
Guymon OK                  97  69  96  69 /  20  20  20  20
Hereford TX                96  70  96  70 /  10  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX                97  72  95  71 /  10  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   94  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                94  70  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX              95  72  94  72 /  10  10   0   0
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...11