-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
567
FXUS64 KAMA 192320
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The widespread rainfall seen this morning has significantly
lessened in coverage as the outflow boundary has pushed out of the
CWA. Thunderstorms may re-develop later this afternoon in New
Mexico and move into the western Panhandles if there is enough
instability. It`s hard to get a grasp on the extent of the
potential convection, if it happens at all, given that the models
have not handled convection well over the past 18 hours or so.
But some lobes of vorticity may move into the northwestern
combined Panhandles later this afternoon and into the evening
which may provide enough forcing to produce some thunderstorms in
the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles . Will have to
wait and see what happens with the ongoing showers and convection
and which part of the area stays dry, and if there are any areas
that can destabilize in time for the next potential round later in
the day. If any thunderstorm can tap into an unstable
environment, the primary threats would be damaging winds and large
hail as well as heavy rainfall that could cause flooding issues.
This would be most favored in the far western combined Panhandles.
Again, overall confidence is low regarding the potential for
additional thunderstorm development, and even lower for any
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms later.

Tonight should be dry, but southeasterly surface winds and southerly
850mb winds should help continue to pump in moisture related to
Tropical Storm Alberto in the western Gulf of Mexico. There may be
some weak forcing that works into the western TX Panhandle Thursday
afternoon. If thunderstorms can develop, they should remain well-
behaved given very weak instability but heavy rain will certainly be
possible.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The extended will be a gradual transition starting with the south
to southwest flow as we remain west of an strong high pressure
setup over the Ohio River Valley, and by the end of the extended,
we`ll be just east of a new ridge of high pressure that will be
set up over the Four Corners. Overall the best chances for rain
look to be on Sunday evening and again on Tuesday evening, but the
chance of rain is the just about every day. The best chances for
little to no precipitation looks to be Saturday and Monday.

Overall, High pressure to the east will quickly break down as a weak
upper trough moves across the northern CONUS.  This will take us
from south to southwest flow on Friday to a more zonal flow
Saturday, and this is why Saturday looks less favorable for showers
or storms, but there`s always a chance that we see some subtle
shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow and we get a few storms to
develop.  As we move into Sunday and early next week the upper
trough will begin to amplify over the Great Lakes Region, which will
help build a Four Corners ridge over the western COUNS.  As a result
we`ll transition to northwest flow and that would bring a better
chance of showers and storms on Sunday.

Monday, the upper trough will push off to the east coast and that
will allow for the ridge to strengthen, which in turn will weaken
the northwest flow regime over our area.  Therefore, Monday may not
be as favorable for showers or storms, but as noted before, there`s
always a possibility for some embedded waves to trigger a storm or
two.  By Tuesday a new trough will enter the Great Lakes Region and
the ridge will shift a bit more west allowing for a slightly better
northwest flow component, but a more pronounced shortwave looks to
provide a better chance of scattered to possibly widespread storms
across the area.

Overall, temperatures will mid 90s to lower 100s for the extended.
The exception would be on Friday as we`ll be in the upper 80s.  Main
concern we need to watch will be if the NBM dewpoints are too low.
Typically, dewpoints right around 60 on these hot days would be on
the high side, but given all this recent moisture, we need to
consider the possibility that if our dewpoints hold in the 60s or
higher then we could be looking at some heat index`s that could
approach the 100-110 range.  Current forecast for Palo Duro Canyon
already is over 100 degrees on Monday and Tuesday (without a heat
index component), and it`s very close to 100 on Sunday.  So would
not be surprised to see temperatures and/or heat index`s in the Palo
Duro Canyon area to hit the 105 (Heat Advisory) mark on Monday and
Tuesday, and maybe even on Sunday.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Cumulus is still present across the panhandles this evening which
can still cause a few isolated light rain showers. The northern
stations of KGUY and KDHT have the higher chance of seeing further
showers this evening with KAMA having a lesser chance. However
the chances are not high enough at KDHT and KAMA to carry in the
TAFs at this time. Cloud decks should generally stay VFR but there
is a very low chance that a low level cloud deck may form from
the recycled rainfall moisture. If this occurs then it is not out
of the realm for IFR decks to form mainly and KGUY. This chance of
this is no where near certain enough to reflect in the TAF just
know that it is possible. Winds are gusty this evening but will
weaken for the overnight hours. The winds will then become gusty
again during the late morning to early afternoon hours for all
terminals.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  83  66  87 /  20  10  20  10
Beaver OK                  65  87  67  90 /  20   0   0   0
Boise City OK              62  84  62  83 /  50  20  10  10
Borger TX                  68  89  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              66  86  67  87 /  40  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  64  81  66  85 /  20  20  20  10
Clarendon TX               64  81  67  86 /  10  20  10   0
Dalhart TX                 63  85  62  84 /  50  20  20  20
Guymon OK                  64  86  64  87 /  40  10  10   0
Hereford TX                65  83  66  87 /  20  20  30  10
Lipscomb TX                67  87  69  90 /  10   0  10   0
Pampa TX                   65  85  68  88 /  10  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                67  85  69  90 /  10  10  10   0
Wellington TX              67  85  70  90 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...98