-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
212
FXUS64 KAMA 261740
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

-Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the coming
 week, with decreased chances following for the weekended.

-Repeat rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain will result in
 localized flooding chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Rain showers and thunderstorms continue to be present on radar
across the Panhandles tonight. This activity is likely to hold
through the overnight with model agreement seeing the present low
pressure system to our west and strong high pressure to our east.
The placement of these two systems has allow for a monsoon like
presence to take hold over much of New Mexico and the western
portions of the southern plains. As it stand this set up has seen
high amount of moisture present across the Western Panhandles with
latest models and 00Z sounding suggesting PWAT values reaching
around 1.25 to 1.5 inch mark. This moisture combined with some
slight instability and orographic lift from the mountains to our
west should keep chances of showers and thunderstorms going for at
least another day for the Panhandles. However, latest CAMs are
still a bit mixed on severe potential for this coming afternoon.
Currently both the RAP and Namnest have seeing some higher MLCAPE
amount present in the northwest with enough effective bulk shear
to keep things more organized. On the other hand, the HRRR is not
as enthusiastic with both its CAPE and shear values on the lower
end. Regardless the present high PWAT values could still lead to
moderate to heavy rainfall in some of these stronger storms, which
could lead to localized flash flooding.

Moving into Friday, model agreement does see the present high
pressure system start to shift towards the east. This shift will
mark the beginning of the end for our monsoonal setup with many of
the models expecting the trough to our finally breaking down as
well. Despite this break down, low chances for showers (10 to 20%)
still exist for the afternoon given the still present moisture and
weak instability. However, these chance may be fleeting as most
models see a more zonal pattern take over for the overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

As we progress into the weekend and next week, model agreement
sees the strong upper-level high pressure forced off into the
southeastern coast, which in turn allows for the present trough to
break down and finally pass through. This transition of the
upper- level pattern does look to put the Panhandles under a more
zonal upper-level flow for the weekend. This more zonal flow will
help keep activity more conditional as we see the higher moisture
content start to shift and concentrate to our east once again.
Moving into next week, has model agreement seeing the Panhandles
under a very stagnate upper-level pattern with our general
steering flow becoming very weak for much of the holiday week.
Unfortunately or fortunately, depending on how you feel, this
stagnate pattern does not necessarily mean we will dry out as
potential is present to see weak disturbances push in and create
pop-up thunderstorms each afternoon all the way into Thursday. At
this time these chances range anywhere from 20 to 40% across the
entire Panhandles, with best currently hold for Monday. Meanwhile,
severe potential still possible despite present patterns
suggesting very weak wind shear expected over next week.
Regardless, the potential for thunderstorms and showers will help
keep temperatures down in this stagnate pattern with latest
calling for highs in the 80s to low 90s clear into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be out of the south for the most part in the 10
to 15 kt range. PROB30s are set for mainly the 20z-04z time period
at the sites, as we do expect afternoon scattered storms to pop
around the Panhandles, but confidence on any timing is low. Will
amend as necessary for storms that look to impact the TAF sites.

Weber
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...89