-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
156
FXUS64 KAMA 190206
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
906 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 906 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A line of strong to severe storms have finally moved into Texas
and Beaver counties in the Oklahoma Panhandle. The atmosphere
remains favorable for a few storms to remain strong to severe with
the primary hazards being large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding. The weak showers/storms
that developed around Amarillo/Canyon have dissipated and
additional storm development is highly unlikely the rest of the
night. Have removed mentionable PoPs across much of the Texas
Panhandle through the rest of the night. Other forecast elements
remain on track through sunrise tomorrow morning.

Muscha

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A few cumulus fields have developed across the Panhandles. The
first one is along the cold front/dry line combo from Dalhart up
through southwest Kansas. The other area is in the central and
south central TX Panhandle where some of the cumulus have tried to
become showers or a storm, but have struggled thus far. A few
attempts at convection may finally be trying between Dimmitt and
Tulia. Have kept in broad low PoP mentions in the forecast at this
point given the high uncertainty and lack of consistency with the
CAMs. The higher potential for storms tonight will be across the
Oklahoma Panhandle should storms along the cold front in KS move
south, which most models are depicting will occur. Storms tonight
still could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind
gusts the primary hazards.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As of this afternoon, latest satellite and ground sensors are
seeing the expected cold frontal boundary finally slow just north
of eastern portion of the Oklahoma Panhandle. This frontal
boundary will play a key role in getting any thunderstorms to
develop later today and possibly Wednesday as many models are
still expecting it to stall over our area. Meanwhile to our west,
the other half of the front is now integrating into the short-wave
trof moving through, which in turn is helping push the dry line
back into western most counties. Currently, latest observations is
showing said dry boundary running roughly from Stratford, TX to
Tucumcari, NM. Should this sharpen and progress a little further
in then potential for storms in the south will also increase for
the day with many of the CAMs already increasing the odds with
their latest runs. However, there is still a decent cap over the
area which may keep development limited. Regardless, potential for
any thunderstorm that develop to turn severe is present with
MLCAPE values running around 2500 J/kg and DCAPE pushing 1700 to
1800 J/kg. The biggest issue will be shear as latest guidance is
not seeing much more than 20 to 25kt, which will make storms
harder to stay sustain. This will also make the chances for
tornadoes much lower, though a landspout forming off a boundary
cant be fully ruled out either.

As we head into Wednesday, models are still settling on the more
southerly track for the tropical disturbance that is currently in
the Gulf of Mexico. This track will push most of the heavier
moisture into Mexico and southern portions of Texas, but we should
still see an increase as will with most model seeing PWATS around
1.5 inches. This does give us the potential for shower and
thunderstorms tomorrow that could produce heavier rainfall for the
day, but that will only come to pass should the front push further
south into our area and hold. Otherwise, expect a temperature drop
to coincide with both the increase in moisture and front boundary.
Expect most locations to go from the low to mid 90s today to 80s
for Wednesday afternoon.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For Thursday through Monday, medium range models and ensemble
members suggest the upper level ridge of high pressure will
expand westward to encompass roughly most of the southern one
third of the United States as the western states upper level trof
weakens and translates eastward across the north central states.
The latest 12Z medium range models and associated ensembles have
maintained the trend towards a stronger upper level ridge which
would act to steer the potential tropical system more westward and
into northeast Mexico with only very limited impacts with respect
to moisture advection into our forecast area for Thursday. Refer
to the latest NHC bulletins for more information on this potential
tropical cyclone. The latest NBM pops have trended down more for
Thursday and Thursday night. In fact, NBM pops for Friday through
Monday have also lowered further compared to 24 hours ago as most
medium range deterministic and corresponding ensemble members are
projecting our region to be more under the influence of the upper
level ridge. Given reasonable medium range model agreement, have
sided with the NBM pops for Friday through Monday. The close
proximity of the ridge of high pressure also supports NBM
temperatures for all periods of the long term forecast.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions will persist at the beginning of this TAF cycle.
There is a chance that storms may get close to or impact KGUY, so
have added VCTS mentions there. KAMA/KDHT may also see a storm,
but confidence is not high enough to add at this time and will
amend if necessary. Low clouds will move in at all sites with MVFR
ceilings forecast by 12 to 14z. These low clouds should clear out
around or after 18z. Winds will start out of the south and should
become easterly/northeasterly when a weak front goes through the
area tonight.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Amarillo TX                69  86  64  81 /  30  30  40  30
Beaver OK                  65  86  64  87 /  80  60  30  10
Boise City OK              61  78  60  83 /  50  60  40  20
Borger TX                  71  91  67  87 /  30  50  40  30
Boys Ranch TX              69  88  64  84 /  20  50  50  30
Canyon TX                  68  85  63  79 /  30  30  40  30
Clarendon TX               69  85  64  78 /  20  20  20  30
Dalhart TX                 64  84  60  83 /  30  60  50  30
Guymon OK                  65  82  62  85 /  60  60  40  10
Hereford TX                69  87  64  80 /  20  30  40  40
Lipscomb TX                70  88  65  86 /  30  50  20  20
Pampa TX                   69  86  64  82 /  20  40  30  20
Shamrock TX                70  88  66  83 /  10  20  20  30
Wellington TX              71  88  67  83 /  10  10  20  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05