-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
061
FXUS64 KAMA 221711
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A broad upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the region through Sunday night. This
translates to warmer temperatures today and Sunday compared to the
past few days. Plenty of moisture remains across the area as seen
by well above climatological normal PWAT values. A very weak
surface trof is expected to establish itself from southwest to
northeast and bisecting the forecast area. This feature, plus
sufficient moisture, daytime heating, and a corresponding unstable
atmosphere may result in the development of isolated to possibly
scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening,
mainly over western and central sections. Locally heavy rainfall
may occur with the stronger cores. Storm potential and coverage
will likely diminish and may be more confined to the far western
sections of the OK and TX Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening
as the previously mentioned weak surface trof dissipates. Short
range models are in general agreement on the overall pattern and
were accepted.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The aforementioned upper level ridge of high pressure will continue
to be the dominant feature in our weather pattern from Monday through
Friday. This will generally result in above normal temperatures during
this time frame. Given the strength of this ridge, high temperatures
across many locations will likely approach or exceed 100 degrees
on one or more days of the extended periods. Heat Index values may
approach or exceed 105 degrees at times, most likely on Monday,
Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Friday across parts of the area,
and Heat Advisories may be needed on one or more of those days as
well. Precipitation chances Monday through Friday will strongly
depend on the overall strength of the upper level high pressure as
well as how much of our forecast area sits beneath it. Medium range
models suggest some potential meandering of the ridge axis at times
during the extended periods. NBM pops and temperatures look reasonable
given the progged synoptic pattern and were accepted with no adjustments
necessary.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Breezy
southwesterly winds are currently being observed but will taper
off to around 8-10 kts this afternoon. A boundary will come
through KGUY and KDHT which will change winds to northerly or
easterly, but winds will remain 10 kts or less. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at KDHT, and to a lesser degree
KGUY and KAMA, this afternoon. However, low confidence regarding
coverage and timing precludes mentions in the TAF at the moment,
but amendments may be needed if confidence increases.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Amarillo TX                72  94  70  97 /  10  10  10   0
Beaver OK                  71  96  71 100 /  10   0  10   0
Boise City OK              67  93  64  98 /  20  30  10  10
Borger TX                  74 100  73 103 /  20  10  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              71  96  70 100 /  20  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  69  93  70  96 /  10  10  10   0
Clarendon TX               71  95  71  96 /   0  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 67  93  65  98 /  20  20  10   0
Guymon OK                  69  95  67 100 /  10  10  10   0
Hereford TX                69  95  70  98 /  10  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                73  98  73 100 /  10  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   73  96  72  98 /  10  10  10   0
Shamrock TX                72  98  72  99 /   0  10   0   0
Wellington TX              73  99  72 100 /   0  10   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...52