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482
FXUS64 KAMA 101849
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
149 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
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(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A broad area of low pressure continues to sit over the area within
upper level ridge present over the Southern Great Plains and Desert
Southwest. Based on this mornings upper air sounding PWATs are
around 1.23" with a very tropical like sounding with some cold air
aloft near H7 to H5 layer. An MCV was seen on radar this morning and
has taken an unusual track back to the northwest coming up into the
FA from the south and sparking showers and thunderstorms across
the southwestern TX Panhandle. Heavy rainfall rates have been
observed verifying the very moist morning sounding. Effective CAPE
values are between 200 and 400 J/Kg allowing for enough
instability for a few rumbles of thunder and rainfall rates
between 1" and 2" an hour. This activity with the dynamics aloft
are expected to continue through this evening with activity
winding down after that. Until then, the main threat today will be
potential flooding with this set up.

Thanks to the cloud cover and rain, afternoon temperatures are
expected to remain in the 70s for much of the southwestern half of
the combined Panhandles. Some additional shower activity may
continue overnight into tomorrow with a secondary low pressure
system aloft is expected to trek across the area. This low will
favor the rain staying in the southern TX Panhandle southward. It
is yet to be determine how much activity may actually occur
overnight as CAMs have backed off on precip. The speed of the low
will determine how long PoPs potentially stick around for tonight
and tomorrow. As the low moves off, skies should clear a little in
the afternoon for sunshine to help temperatures make it into the
80s. Tomorrow night is expected to be primarily rain free with the
maybe the exception of some lingering activity in the far
southeastern TX Panhandle. Again, depends on how fast this this
weak cutoff low moves across.

36
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&&

.LONG TERM ...
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(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Wed H5 heights are progged to rise to around 590 dam under a
ridge expected to build in over the area. On Thu those H5 heights
are expected to rise to near 595 dam. Afternoon temperatures Wed
are expected to be in the lower 90s, with upper 90s expected for
Thu with these height rises. Quite a bit of moisture is expected
to be in place for both days again with dewpoints in the 50s and
60s and H7 theta-e advection near 330 to 340 K. Models mostly
expect Wed through Thu to be dry. However, if any disturbance
comes across the ridge showers and thunderstorms will be possible.
Have stayed with NBM values which do now give some slight chance
PoPs, mainly across the northern combined Panhandles for Thu
night.

Fri may be a few degrees cooler. However, temperatures are still
expected to be well into the mid 90s. A shortwave trough may move
into the area Fri night from the southwest. This will give the
northwestern half to two thirds of the combined Panhandles a 30 to
50 percent chance for thunderstorms Fri night into Sat morning.
Again these are the current NBM PoPs. Depending on the rain this
may help hold temperatures back on Sat with upper 80s to lower 90s
for an afternoon high on Sat. Under high pressure on Sun
temperatures are expected to warm to the mid to upper 90s once
again.

36
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to potentially impact KDHT
and KAMA through about 00Z Tuesday. Higher confidence is with KAMA
being impacted as showers have already started to pop up in the
vicinity. All the moisture in the area is making it hard to
determine the CIGs, with all terminals likely seeing MVFR CIGs
through this TAF period. KAMA did briefly drop to 800 ft but has
since gone back up to BKN019. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms should drop off during the overnight hours between
00Z and 12Z Tue. However, cannot completely rule out impacts to
KAMA during this time period. Moisture should stick around and
could still hold low CIGs in the Panhandles until 12Z Tue as well.
Light easterly to south-easterly winds are expected to prevail
through the period.

36
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                60  82  61  90 /  30  30  10   0
Beaver OK                  62  87  62  95 /  10  10   0   0
Boise City OK              56  86  57  95 /  10  20   0  10
Borger TX                  63  87  63  95 /  30  20  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              61  86  62  94 /  30  10  10   0
Canyon TX                  59  82  60  89 /  30  30  10   0
Clarendon TX               61  79  61  85 /  50  40  10   0
Dalhart TX                 57  85  58  93 /  20  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  59  86  60  95 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                60  83  61  91 /  40  20  10   0
Lipscomb TX                63  84  62  92 /  20  20  10   0
Pampa TX                   61  82  62  89 /  40  20  10   0
Shamrock TX                63  81  63  87 /  50  40  10   0
Wellington TX              63  81  63  87 /  60  50  20   0
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36