Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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486 FXUS64 KAMA 100605 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will move into the Panhandles tonight into Monday. A few storms could be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. The primary concern however, will be high rainfall rates which could lead to flooding and flash flooding. Rain showers and thunderstorms may continue through Monday into Monday night, but flooding concerns should decrease as rain rates will not be as high. Most cloud dover has cleared out of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles early this afternoon. There are still some cumulus and high clouds moving over the area, but these should not inhibit heating all that much. A weak cold front has moved through the area which should keep temperatures mainly in the 80s for today. Some cumulus has begun to develop across the central and south which may lead to isolated showers or storms this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, the main upper level disturbance will move across NM and west Texas late this evening into the overnight hours. With plenty of moisture throughout the column, as depicted by model soundings, plenty of showers and storms should develop and move east and northeast overnight. With PWAT values over the 90th percentile, rainfall rates upwards of 2 inches per hour will be possible with the storms tonight. The higher potential for storms to have 1 inch per hour rain rates will be across the southwestern TX Panhandle, where the 09/12z HREF probabilities have around a 30 to 60 percent chance at meeting this threshold beginning around midnight. These high rainfall rates could lead to flooding, flash flooding, and hazardous driving conditions. Some of the most flood prone areas of the Panhandles, Amarillo and Palo Duro Canyon, will need to be monitored closely for a flash flood potential for tonight into Monday morning. For Monday, the upper level low pressure system is forecast to remain west of the Panhandles and eventually should start moving over the area late in the day. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day, with the higher chances across the central and west. With all the moisture still in place across the area, it will not take much lift to generate additional showers and thunderstorms. With plenty of cloud cover across the area tomorrow, highs will likely remain in the 70s for most with some low 80s across the east. As the disturbance moves across the area Monday night, showers and storms will continue to be possible heading into Tuesday morning. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Have stayed with NBM values through the extended period. PoPs decrease Tuesday night with a possible break in any thunderstorms across the combined Panhandles for Wed and Thu. Chance PoPs return to the northwestern half of the combined Panhandles late Fri into Fri night. Saturday slight chance PoPs exist for much of the area into Sat night. After a potentially cool day in the 70s on Mon, Tue will see temperatures rise back into the 80s as precip chances gradually decrease through the day as an upper shortwave trough exits the area to the southeast. Flow aloft is expected to be northerly with a ridge building to the west over the Desert Southwest with H5 heights around 586 dam over the combined Panhandles. Going into Wed the ridge will continue to build east over the area with H5 heights rising to 590 dam Wed afternoon and 594 dam by Thu. This is expected to bring daytime temperatures back int he lower 90s on Wed and upper 90s to lower triple digits by Thu. A Heat Advisory is looking likely for PDC once again. Even though Wed and Thu look to be dry with the ridge building in, models continue to hold plenty of moisture advection across the area through the week. Any disturbance in the flow aloft may potentially spark some midnight surprises Wed night and Thu night. Fri may also have afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. A shortwave H5 trough is progged to traverse the area Friday evening/overnight bringing some precip chances to the northwestern half of the FA. How much of the FA that will see thunderstorms is still in question. For now the NBM holds slight chance PoPs for Sat with highs in the 90s once again. 36 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 For the 06Z TAFs, deteriorating conditions are likely at the terminal sites through tonight with showers and thunderstorms anticipated mainly across western and southern sections through the overnight hours. KAMA and KDHT are most likely to encounter the precipitation later tonight into Monday morning, while there remains quite a bit of uncertainty at KGUY where the lowest chance resides. MVFR cigs are forecast to impact the TAF sites for much of this cycle. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 60 85 62 91 / 50 40 10 10 Beaver OK 58 88 63 96 / 20 20 10 0 Boise City OK 55 86 59 96 / 30 20 10 0 Borger TX 61 89 65 96 / 40 30 10 0 Boys Ranch TX 60 89 64 96 / 50 30 10 10 Canyon TX 60 84 61 91 / 50 40 10 10 Clarendon TX 61 81 62 88 / 40 50 20 10 Dalhart TX 56 88 60 95 / 40 20 10 10 Guymon OK 57 88 61 96 / 20 20 10 0 Hereford TX 60 88 62 94 / 50 30 10 10 Lipscomb TX 61 85 63 92 / 20 20 10 0 Pampa TX 61 84 63 91 / 30 30 10 0 Shamrock TX 61 82 63 89 / 30 40 20 0 Wellington TX 63 83 64 89 / 40 40 20 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...02