-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
190
FXUS64 KAMA 220954
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
454 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A broad upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern across the region through Sunday night. This
translates to warmer temperatures today and Sunday compared to the
past few days. Plenty of moisture remains across the area as seen
by well above climatological normal PWAT values. A very weak
surface trof is expected to establish itself from southwest to
northeast and bisecting the forecast area. This feature, plus
sufficient moisture, daytime heating, and a corresponding unstable
atmosphere may result in the development of isolated to possibly
scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening,
mainly over western and central sections. Locally heavy rainfall
may occur with the stronger cores. Storm potential and coverage
will likely diminish and may be more confined to the far western
sections of the OK and TX Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening
as the previously mentioned weak surface trof dissipates. Short
range models are in general agreement on the overall pattern and
were accepted.

02
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The aforementioned upper level ridge of high pressure will continue
to be the dominant feature in our weather pattern from Monday through
Friday. This will generally result in above normal temperatures during
this time frame. Given the strength of this ridge, high temperatures
across many locations will likely approach or exceed 100 degrees
on one or more days of the extended periods. Heat Index values may
approach or exceed 105 degrees at times, most likely on Monday,
Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Friday across parts of the area,
and Heat Advisories may be needed on one or more of those days as
well. Precipitation chances Monday through Friday will strongly
depend on the overall strength of the upper level high pressure as
well as how much of our forecast area sits beneath it. Medium range
models suggest some potential meandering of the ridge axis at times
during the extended periods. NBM pops and temperatures look reasonable
given the progged synoptic pattern and were accepted with no adjustments
necessary.

02
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Initially,
winds will be out of the south to southwest but will eventually
turn northern/easterly at KGUY and KDHT from a weak front moving
in around 18z. Before the front arrives, all sites may see some
wind gusts upwards of 25 to 30 kts. Mid to high level clouds will
prevail over the sites during this TAF cycle. A few showers or
storms are possible late in this TAF period but confidence is not
high enough to mention in the TAFs at this time.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Amarillo TX                94  72  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
Beaver OK                  96  71  96  71 /  10  10   0  10
Boise City OK              93  67  93  64 /  20  20  20  10
Borger TX                 100  74 100  73 /  10  20  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              96  71  96  70 /  10  30  10  20
Canyon TX                  92  69  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
Clarendon TX               94  71  95  71 /   0  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 94  67  93  65 /  20  30  20  10
Guymon OK                  95  69  95  67 /  10  20  10  10
Hereford TX                94  69  95  70 /  10  20  10  10
Lipscomb TX                98  73  98  73 /  10  10   0  10
Pampa TX                   95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                96  72  98  72 /   0  10  10  10
Wellington TX              96  73  99  72 /   0  10   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05