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949
FXUS61 KBGM 230741
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
341 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered rain showers will move through Central New York and
Northeast Pennsylvania today, lasting through tonight.
Relatively active pattern continues this week with a chance of
rain showers every day.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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340 AM Update...

A weak shortwave will bring rain showers across Central NY and
NE PA today and through tonight, with accompanying gusty
southeast winds. Showers will progress west to east, reaching
areas east of I-81 by late morning/early afternoon. Rainfall
amounts will likely stay under a quarter of an inch, but there
may be some brief, more intense rainfall with some showers.
Temperatures become more seasonable today, expected to be in the
high 50s to mid 60s. Overnight temperatures will be the same as
it has been the past few nights; mid to high 50s. Tuesday
temperatures increase slightly to the low to high 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM Update...
The midweek period will continue to be a battle between stable
dry low level air feeding in from high pressure to our
northeast, and moisture aloft from disturbances embedded within
southwesterly mid-to-upper level flow. The end result will be
plenty of clouds, along with waves of showers at times and
perhaps isolated thunder.

Initially, surface high pressure extending down from New
England, will have the upper hand in keeping things stable.
Confidence has increased that areas east of I-81 will be mainly
dry during the day even though clouds will be thickening. Even
to the west, any showers will tend to be spotty and light.
Clouds will hold temperatures in the 60s for highs, though lower
elevations along the NY Thruway as well as the Wyoming Valley in
PA could get close to 70.

A better wave and lobe of deeper moisture are projected to pass
Tuesday night into Wednesday, along with some forced ascent
from the left exit region of a jet aloft. This will be coupled
with a modest low level jet in the 925-850mb feeding in moisture
above the stable surface layer. Amounts do not look that heavy,
but showers will be likely during that period. Elevated yet
limited instability aloft could also lead to isolated thunder
along the wave itself, but mostly just showers are anticipated.
Copious clouds will prevent temperatures from falling below
upper 40s-upper 50s Tuesday night, followed by highs of only
upper 50s-mid 60s Wednesday. Downsloping of southeasterly winds
could get the Finger Lakes-Syracuse areas more into the upper
60s-near 70. By Wednesday night, upper ridging will start nosing
in to make moisture shallower. Showers may still be around in
the evening, but should diminish with lows of 50s-near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM update...
Uncertainty exists for whether an upper low will swing close
enough to the area of wraparound showers Thursday, otherwise
odds are increasing for a mainly dry weekend ahead.

Amplified blocking pattern is become evident late this week,
into next weekend. Some models still dig a quick upper low in
our vicinity Thursday, with resultant scattered showers, but
others shoot it more towards New England. Either way, a trend
towards our area getting situated in upper ridging is evident by
the weekend, between a broad cutoff low somewhere over the
South-Central U.S. and at least some cyclonic upper flow
lingering over New England. This would increase the odds of us
having a quieter stretch of weather Friday through next weekend.
This also, at least for now, keeps any tropical concerns at bay
for us even though there may be some development in the Gulf of
Mexico this week.

Being many days away, and with models having been inconsistent
lately, it is not wise to totally bank on dry weather just yet
but the trends do favor it. Probability of precipitation is only
in the 10-20 percent range for that time period in the latest
iteration of the forecast, with temperatures near or slightly
above climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to last the next couple of hours for
the majority of terminals before rain showers and low ceilings
begin moving in from the west. Through the afternoon, all
terminals will see conditions worsen to MVFR/fuel alt, with
various initial start times, but all are expected to be impacted
by rain showers, gusty south-southeasterly winds, and MVFR/fuel
alt ceilings.

Currently, we don`t anticipate conditions worsening to IFR, but
ELM and ITH had hints of a small possibility towards the
afternoon hours, but confidence is too low to include worsening
conditions.

As showers move into terminals, there may be brief periods of
IFR conditions as heavier, more intense rainfall occurs over a
terminal periodically.

.Outlook...

Monday Night Through Tuesday...Restrictions possible with
showers.

Wednesday through Friday...Generally, unsettled with VFR
ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing
showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...JTC/KL
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...KL