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550
FXUS61 KBGM 211814
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
214 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers or thunderstorms are expected over western
portions of the Twin Tiers late this afternoon and tonight. This
weather activity will be followed by some overnight fog in the
valleys and then dry and seasonable conditions on Sunday. Next
week looks to be more active with a chance of showers on most
days.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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200 PM Update...

Shortwave moving out of western Ontario has started to trigger
thunderstorms across western NY. Blended guidance suggests this
trend will continue into the western third of CNY and NEPA
during the late afternoon and evening before dropping south.
Current forecast is generally on track with latest model
guidance and statistics featuring our highest probabilities in
the Finger Lakes and west-central Southern Tier counties with
little to no rain further east. Highest CAPE and shear values
remain well off to our SW thus concern for severe storms is
waning. Once the upper waves moves south/east later
tonight...partial clearing will take place allowing for possible
valley fog overnight. Dewpoints are up with the approaching
wave which will help. Ridging builds in behind the departing
wave for Sunday as surface high pressure flexes in again from
New England and skies should continue to become partly to mostly
sunny again by Sunday afternoon. Quiet weather continues
through Sunday night although the skinny upper ridge over us
tomorrow will break down fairly quickly allowing clouds to begin
racing in overnight Sunday in preparation for increasing rain
chances again on Monday.

Blended model temperatures from the NBM looked reasonable
through Sunday night.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Persistent troughing off the New England coast will begin pushing
east Sunday night, allowing a sharp upper level ridge axis to drift
east of the Appalachians towards New England by Monday morning.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will extend from northern New
England south along the coastal plain.

As the upper ridge axis shifts east, a belt of more active westerly
flow will setup across the region, with weak shortwave troughs set
to roll across NY/PA Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Initially, the
surface high will hold strong, keeping precip to our west, but PoPs
in the form of light rain showers look to slowly work into areas
west of I-81 by Monday afternoon, overspreading the area Monday
night before slowly tapering off Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The overall upper level pattern will amplify as ridging builds over
the southeastern U.S., and deep troughing carves out over the Upper
Midwest. Another shortwave trough looks to roll through the area
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with another bout of rain showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms. The ridge looks to build along the
coast later in the week, as a cutoff low develops over the mid-
Mississippi valley. This will keep us under an active southwest flow
aloft, with a continued stream of embedded disturbances keeping the
risk of rain showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the
remainder of the period. Rainfall looks to be light, possibly
moderate over some sections towards Thursday, but no hazardous
weather is expected. Temperatures look to hover near seasonal
norms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR is expected for most of this period, but overnight fog will
be a good possibility at KELM. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and tonight,
mainly west of the terminals with KITH and KELM at the highest
risk, but still of low confidence in disrupting terminal ops.
Forecast is worthy of a PROB30 in these areas. An axis of low
level moisture will extend across NEPA into CNY with a
possibility for areas of MVFR layer ceilings developing
overnight and lifting early Sunday.

.Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through midday Monday...VFR. Local fog
restrictions possible late.

Late Monday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR
ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing
showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...JAB