Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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514 FXUS61 KBGM 181953 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 353 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions with afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected through the entire week. A break in the heat may not come until the end of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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350 PM Update: A bit of a messy setup is in place this afternoon due to very light steering flows. Any isolated thunderstorms that have developed have been rather slow moving with erratic storm motions. These storms have tended to especially hang around higher terrain areas. Some of these storms have briefly pulsed up, resulting in some pockets of wind damage. This threat will continue to be localized/not widespread the remainder of the afternoon. In addition, with elevated PWATs, combined with the slow/erratic storm motions, isolated instances of flash flooding is possible. Some lingering showers or thunderstorms will be possible tonight, especially this evening with lingering CAPE present, but the overall diurnal trend will continue and coverage will be diminishing. Otherwise, a partly cloudy night is in store with continued muggy conditions (lows only in the upper 60s to mid 70s). Rinse and repeat for Wednesday with pretty much a persistence forecast being utilized. In other words, it will be another hot and humid day with afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs are again expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s, which may again depend on where/if thunderstorms develop. Then similar conditions are expected Wednesday night (warm/muggy with lows only in the upper 60s to lower 70s).
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 110 PM Update: The short term period will feature more of the same weather; hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms as multiple waves move around the periphery of the dominating ridge. This creates a bit of a challenging forecast for temperatures, as it is possible that clouds from thunderstorms/convective debris may hold back temperatures a bit in spots, yet also increase dew points. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are expected on Thursday, with perhaps slightly cooler temperatures on Friday with a greater chance of seeing afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With ample CAPE in place, some thunderstorms may become strong to severe both days. Limited shear will be present on Thursday, but shear increases a bit on Friday, especially along and north of the NY Thruway corridor. While the current heat advisory goes through Thursday, it is possible that this may need to be extended to include Friday at a later time. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 110 PM Update: Not much has changed in the long term period with more of the same expected during the weekend (hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon). By Sunday, the ridge starts to finally break down, but with an approaching shortwave and cold front, coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase a bit Sunday and Sunday night. Then temperatures cool down a bit for the beginning of next week, but still remain a bit above normal. Depending on the timing of the cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into Monday, before conditions dry out for Tuesday as high pressure moves in. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours (at least through 18Z Wednesday). However, isolated thunderstorms this afternoon are possible. Confidence is not high enough to include this (or any associated restrictions) at any particular terminal at this time, but this will be monitored this afternoon for any potential amendments. Similar to last night, some valley fog will be possible at KELM tonight, although this is not a certainty. If fog does settle in, IFR visby restrictions would be possible there before dissipating at, or a bit after 12Z Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday afternoon through Sunday...Spotty restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities increasing slowly in the later part of the period. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044- 047-048-072. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ062.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...BJG