-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
407
FXUS61 KBGM 161028
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
628 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will continue dry and warm
conditions through the rest of the weekend. Hot and humid
conditions expected through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM Update...

High pressure over the area will keep conditions warm and mostly
dry. Sunday will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and
high temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. Dew points will be
in the 50s, so it`ll still feel comfortable. Things heat up for
Monday, with temperatures increasing into the high 80s to low
90s, with potential for afternoon thunderstorms for Central NY
west of I-81. Dew points rise into the mid to upper 60s, with
some places in northern Central NY hitting 70, so humidity will
make things feel a little less comfortable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
335 AM Update...

Tuesday will see the heat and humidity increasing across the
region. Surface high pressure will be stationed out in the
Atlantic with warm and moist SW return flow pumping into the
area on Tuesday. Heat index will likely approach triple digits,
especially in the urban areas during the afternoon hours. There
is still a little uncertainty with temperatures, as isolated
thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and this
would ease the heat for some. Even so, a heat advisory is
looking likely for most of the NY counties on Tuesday as
criteria is 95F for NY. In PA, the criteria for an advisory
starts at 100F and there will certain be some potential in the
urban areas of the Wyoming Valley for this value to be exceeded.
For now, will continue to highlight the heat threat in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 AM Update...

The heat and humidity will persist throughout the work week. As
mentioned in the short term period, heat headlines may be
needed, however there is still some uncertainty. Forecast
soundings are showing over 2000 J/kg of CAPE depending where the
high pressure actually sets up will determine what type of
convective activity we will see. There is some concern towards
the end of the week as we are on the periphery of the high and
flow aloft turns a little more west-northwesterly. The stronger
westerly flow does look like it stays further north in Canada,
but definitely worth watching, as heat waves and stronger NW
flow can lead to strong convective complexes to develop.

Conditions will continue to slightly improve through the end of
the week and into the weekend as 500mb heights slowly fall.
Some 80s will finally be sprinkled in with the 90s for Friday
and with even slightly cooler temps for Saturday. Lows will drop
into the 60s both nights. A slow moving cold front will pass
through late in the week or at the start of the weekend, with
more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with this
frontal passage.

Finally, will also have to watch what happens with moisture
from a tropical wave system that models have pushing into the SE
U.S. at the end of the week. Some model guidance shows the
moisture riding up the approaching front and bringing some
heavy rain into our region towards the end of the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Light/variable winds and mostly VFR conditions expected at all
terminals through the period. Winds shift southerly later in the
evening hours, and may have periodic gusts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Monday morning...Mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon through Thursday...Restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...KL