-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
755
FXUS61 KBGM 220834
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
434 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend, with
scattered thunderstorms returning today, with even more on
Sunday, as a cold front sweeps through the area. Some stronger
storms may produce damaging winds and torrential rainfall. Heat
and humidity will subside Monday and Tuesday behind the front.
Showers and thunderstorms look to return on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
414 AM Update...

A few convective showers have started developing over Oneida
County north of a stalled out frontal boundary. Some additional
development is possible over the next couple hours, and they may
expand westward a bit before heading off to the east after
sunrise.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
by early afternoon, likely starting in the Finger Lakes region as
the front sags south. Later in the afternoon and into the
evening hours, the focus for thunderstorms looks to shift south
and east away from the boundary in the more moist and unstable
airmass across the Twin Tiers and NEPA. Expect like the past
couple of days thunderstorm initiation will be triggered off
outflow boundaries, and we`ll likely have a few indistinct
differential heating boundaries in the unstable airmass, the
linger effects of rain-soaked areas from yesterday. The end
result will just be similar to the past couple days, scattered
to numerous pop-and-drop thunderstorms. Deep layer shear of 25
to 30 knots is a little healthier than the past few days, and
this may result in a few more strong to severe storms with
downburst winds being the main threat.

Activity will once again follow a diurnal trend, with showers
and thunderstorms diminishing overnight. Valley fog is likely in
the more sheltered valleys, as a stronger pressure gradient
should keep a little more wind going through the night.

It will remain hot and humid today, especially south of the
stalled out front, where Heat Advisory criteria looks to again
be met across the southern Finger Lakes, Twin Tiers, and NEPA.

A cold front will push into the area on Sunday along with a more
significant shortwave trough, and attendant stronger mid and
low-level flow. Bulk shear around 40 knots will be a significant
uptick, but the timing of the shortwave trough is a little on
the early side, and instability may not build up quite as much
as it could otherwise. SPC Slight Risk covers the whole CWA, but
areas E and SE of a SYR-ELM line may be slightly more favored
for severe thunderstorms due to timing.

Kept the Heat Advisory as-is for Sunday, though if the earlier
cold front passage holds, we may be able to drop the western-
most counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
345 AM Update...

The positively tilted trough will continue to influence the weather
for our CWA through Sunday night. Lingering showers will remain
behind the cold front as the upper level trough lags behind the
surface cold front and a mid- level shortwave ripples through
the overall trough pattern during the overnight hours. To help
boost precipitation chances, the upper level trough axis will
swing across our northern counties later in the night. Showers
and isolated thunder chances will be the highest (40-60%) north
of the Southern Tier during the overnight hours. We will finally
get a reprieve of hot overnight temperatures as lows will fall
into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Dewpoints will fall into in the
low 60s so it will still feel a little sticky out, but should be
noticeably different than what we have been dealing with.

Guidance remains a little unsure on how much the trough will be
positively tilted and how fast it moves through the region on
Monday, so precipitation chances were extended into the afternoon
hours. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 70s across much of
the area thanks to northerly flow that will push a Canadian airmass
into the region. With this airmass comes much less humid air, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. Another ridge will build in from
the west during the evening hours, which will clear us out and allow
radiational cooling to drop overnight lows into the 50s.

Tuesday will see the ridge axis slide east of us once again,
bringing SW flow and warm temperatures back to the region. Highs
will climb into the 80s, with higher elevations in the low 80s and
valleys in the upper 80s. Luckily, dewpoints should remain in the
upper 50s during the hottest part of the day so we should miss out
on sweltering heat we experienced this past week. This ridge
will be transient and not nearly as strong as the one we are
currently under. The next trough will move into the Great Lakes
Tuesday night, allowing for a slight chance of rain showers over
the Finger Lakes. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
350 AM Update...

Active weather returns Wednesday into Thursday morning as a
broad trough pattern returns to the area. A series of shortwaves
will move through during the morning and early afternoon hours,
generating scattered showers across the area. Guidance shows a
cold front moving in sometime later in the afternoon to late
evening hours. The timing of this will greatly determine the
severe weather chances for the day with an afternoon arrival
having the highest chance. WPC also has us in a marginal chance
for excessive rainfall Wed into Thurs morning, which is backed
up by the chance for multiple periods of heavy rainfall. We will
have to keep a close eye on this setup.

High pressure fills in behind the cold front, bringing a nice
end to the work week.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Valley fog will be fairly dense at ELM this morning given the
rainfall yesterday, and fog may creep up into BGM as well.
Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions, though some MVFR
ceilings will begin to develop across northern areas (SYR and
RME) towards dawn, along with a few showers.

Timing of showers and thunderstorms is a little uncertain today,
other than the normal diurnal trend being favored. Thunder is
most likely at ITH, ELM and especially BGM and AVP this
afternoon and evening. Not wanting to blanket too large an area
over too large a time frame, just mentioned VCTS at BGM and AVP
for the time being, with no TEMPO groups.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish during the evening
hours. Areas of fog are likely, especially where it rains, but
a tighter pressure gradient may reduce potential outside of the
most sheltered valleys.

Outlook...

Late Saturday Night through Sunday Morning...Restrictions
possible in valley fog, especially ELM.

Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning...Widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sunday with associated restrictions, mainly to
visibility. Lingering restrictions possible in showers early
Monday.

Monday afternoon through Wednesday...VFR conditions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
     048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ022>025-055-056-062.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJT/MJM/MPH