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344
FXUS61 KBGM 270125
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
925 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few lingering rain showers will be possible through this
evening, especially across the Poconos to Catskills, but
otherwise a drying trend is expected tonight. High pressure will
bring dry conditions on Friday. Mainly dry weather is expected
this weekend, although a few showers cannot be ruled out.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --
930 PM Update...

Light showers continue to linger over the twin tier region as
the front continues to slowly push south. Made minor tweaks to
pops to keep showers around for the next few hours. Otherwise
blended in current observations to temperatures and dew points,
no other changes needed.

630 PM Update...

Expanded pops to include light showers and sprinkles moving
through the Susquehanna Region using radar imagery. Otherwise
made the usual adjustments to temperatures and dew points using
current observations. Previous forecast remains on track at
this time.

350 PM Update...

A slow moving cold front continues to move through the area with
a few light showers. Coverage of showers remains relatively
isolated, so PoPs were reduced for the remainder of this
afternoon.

There will continue to be isolated showers this evening, mainly
across the Poconos-Catskills as the frontal boundary remains
nearly stationary, but otherwise the majority of the area will
remain dry. Lingering low level moisture combined with the
post-frontal airmass will result in patchy fog tonight,
especially where any rain fell today. Lows are expected to be in
the lower 50s to lower 60s, with some mid 40s across northern
Oneida County.

High pressure will be largely in control of our weather on
Friday, although some moisture surging northward may bring a few
isolated showers across Northeast PA late in the day. Otherwise,
skies will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the
lower to mid 70s.

The northeastern edge of an upper low across the Mississippi
River Valley will bring an increasing chance for some light
showers Friday night from south to north. Otherwise, mostly
cloudy skies are expected with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update

Helene will be absorbed by an upper low over the Mid Mississippi
River Valley. This system will slowly drift eastward toward the
Mid Atlantic Coast through the period. Although the bulk of the
moisture associated with this upper low will remain well south
of our region, there is a chance for some light rain showers
across NE PA and perhaps pushing as far north as the NY
Southern Tier. A remnant band of mid level (700mb) moisture
remains in place over the region through the day on Saturday.
There will not be much lift, or moisture above the 700mb
level...therefore the bulk of the area can just expect mostly
cloudy skies with a few sprinkles.

Our area will remain on the northern fringe of the slow moving
upper level low through Sunday. This will keep skies mostly
cloudy with a chance for showers from the Twin Tiers southward
into NE PA. Our area will remain split between high pressure
over southern New England and the Ohio Valley low pressure
system for Sunday night. This setup looks to keep the majority
of the forecast area dry, under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM Update

High pressure will be over the region on Monday with a dry start
to the work week. Due to the complexity of the pattern next
week, there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for
this period. There is significant timing issues with arrival of
next upper trough digging in from Canada. Some guidance shows
this feature pushing into the region Monday night into Tuesday,
while other models hold it off until Wednesday. Stayed with NBM
solution for now, which due to the uncertainty in timing spreads
PoP out with chances for rain Monday into Thursday. However, it
will be more likely that this upper trough and associated
surface cold front will push through the region within a 24 hour
period and it is unlikely there will be rain showers in the
region through the entire forecast period. The forecast will be
more honed in during the coming days as models start to come
into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A slow moving cold front will continue to slowly dip south into
NEPA throughout the overnight hours. Rain is currently falling
at BGM and is staying just south of ELM. Eventually, AVP will
see some rain early in this period as well. This system has
brought some restrictions to ELM and BGM but north of the front,
conditions are VFR but ceilings will eventually drop at all
terminals tonight.

Fog will be possible at the CNY terminals, mainly due to the
added moisture from today`s rainfall. There is uncertainty on
timing and how low visibilities will go. It is rare for SYR to
get fog but most guidance is favoring it there, so opted to
keep it in for this set. Meanwhile, the wind direction does not
look favorable for but fog at ITH but fog cannot be totally ruled
out.

By 12 to 14z, all terminals should return to VFR as high
pressure builds into the region. Winds will be light throughout
this TAF period.

.Outlook...

Friday through Friday afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, but occasional rain
showers may bring brief restrictions, mainly at KAVP.

Tuesday...Scattered rain showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/ES
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...BJG/BTL