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149
FXUS64 KBMX 270153
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
853 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 835 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024

Well, a tricky forecast this afternoon and evening. Temperatures
were quite hot again with a few places into the low 100s while
most others were in the 90s. Thunderstorms did initiate in western
Alabama with heating of the day and an approaching upper trough.
Outflows from activity in Mississippi also aided in storm
development. A few of these storms produced severe wind gusts over
60 mph and blowing trees down. Much drier and more stable air was
over eastern Alabama, but the storms held on and many places did
get rain and thunderstorms east. No additional severe weather is
anticipated overnight, but more showers and storms are possible. A
fine line of activity was indicated near Memphis this evening.
This was near a surface cold front and a trough aloft. These
features will swing into the area overnight and Thursday. Will
continue the belief that there is an increased signal that the
entire system will be slower to exit. This leads to better rain
chances than initially thought. Lows will be near 70 overnight and
highs 85 to 95 on Thursday.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024

Contrary to much of the 12Z guidance, a large coverage of showers
and thunderstorms have already developed across much of central
and eastern Mississippi and into western portions of central
Alabama. Once the cu field began developing this morning, it
didn`t take long for rain to start falling. This activity is being
driven by a large increase in moisture associated with an
approaching trough axis and cold front over the Midsouth region.
There`s currently a moisture gradient over the area, and there`s
still some drier air across the eastern half where dewpoints have
once again mixed down into the lower to mid 60s. However, moisture
will advect eastward with propagation of the trough, so expect
further area-wide development of convection through the afternoon
with the highest chance for rain focused generally along and west
of I-65. This rain should give us some relief from the heat, but
not soon enough as most areas have already reached the mid to
upper 90s. Per RAP mesoanalysis, MUCAPE is around 3000-4000 J/kg
in our west where dewpoints are in the lower 70s. While shear
values are rather weak, some strong downbursts may produce
damaging winds, and storms could also produce torrential downpours
with PWATs around 2".

There`s been an increasing signal of scattered showers and storms
continuing overnight and into tomorrow as the cold front and strong
PVA move southward into the area. Some hi-res models are even
resolving an MCV-like feature over the area early tomorrow
morning which would further support additional rain and
thunderstorms. So luckily, the odds at receiving beneficial rain
seem to be improving for the next 24 hours. The scattered to
numerous showers and cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the
80s tomorrow.

86/Martin
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024

Most likely period of greater thunderstorm coverage during the
long term will come over the weekend (especially Sunday), as the
southern Plains upper ridge retreats just far enough west to allow
a shortwave trough to come through our area. This shortwave
passage is likely to be accompanied plenty of storms, and likely
POPs seem justified.

Beyond Sunday, a dry low level airmass briefly builds in before
the upper ridge recenters itself over the southeast. This results
in more mid/upper 90s degree heat, with a non-zero percent chance
at triple digits.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 835 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2024

Convection is on the downswing this evening. But a cold front and
upper trough approach overnight into Thursday. This will keep the
showers and thunderstorms in the terminal forecast much of the
period. After brief respite, expecting showers and thunderstorms
to redevelop over the area. Additionally, lower clouds will be
developing toward daybreak. Ceilings will drop to MVFR/IFR quickly
around sunrise with showers and thunderstorms around. The ceilings
do rise above criteria by 18z but the mention of convection
remains. Winds generally stay light and variable throughout.

Note: NIL was introduced at TCL for missing data.

75
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture and chances for showers and storms increase across West
Alabama through tonight, while RH values in East Alabama will
still drop into the 25 to 35 percent range. Scattered, mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected Thursday
into the weekend, with the highest coverage in the southeast. RH
values will stay above 45 percent in most areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Gadsden     70  88  69  92 /  30  40  10  40
Anniston    72  89  72  91 /  50  50  10  40
Birmingham  72  89  73  93 /  30  40  10  40
Tuscaloosa  71  88  72  92 /  40  40  10  30
Calera      73  89  73  93 /  30  50  10  40
Auburn      73  89  73  90 /  60  60  20  50
Montgomery  73  90  73  92 /  40  60  20  60
Troy        72  89  71  92 /  60  60  30  70
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&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...75