-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
489
FXUS64 KBMX 180531
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 734 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

Added isolated showers/storms to the eastern half this evening and
now mention rain areawide. Scattered activity will be confined to
the Mississippi state line area. There was a small amount of
convergence and instability east and this is where a few
boundaries have moved in from Georgia. Therefore, showers and
storms will be around another few hours before totally
dissipating. Temperatures have dropped off into the 80s in all but
the rain locations, where 70s exist. Lows mainly drop off into the
70s overnight. Drier air filters in from the east on Tuesday will
no rain mention and highs near 90.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

Radar is fairly quiet just after midday, with most activity
remaining off to the south and west of Central Alabama. The upper
level ridge continues to pull off to the northeast, while building
over the Mid-Atlantic states. Easterly surface flow has begun in the
eastern half of Alabama with slightly drier dewpoints advecting
westward. Overall moisture from 1000-500mb will decrease with time
through the evening and overnight hours tonight as the easterly
flow aloft continues. Highest rain chances will remain across the
western half of Alabama through this evening where the deepest
moisture remains across the atmospheric profile. Additional 500mb
shortwave energy will help to trigger scattered to numerous
showers and storms for locations such as Carrollton, Demopolis,
and Livingston. A few strong storms aren`t out of the question,
but the atmospheric profile is much more moist today as compared
to Sunday with less DCAPE available to help transport gusty winds
to the surface. Isolated to scattered storms are possible as far
east as the I-65 corridor. The easterly flow will help to drop
temperatures a couple of degrees from the highs observed on
Sunday, but we`ll still be able to top out in the low to mid 90s.
Any convective development will diminish through the overnight
hours with lingering mid and high- level clouds. Muggy overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s will continue. Drier air from the east
will take over during the day on Tuesday and will prevent any
convective development. Highs are expected to be a tad cooler in
the upper 80s and lower 90s with humidity levels a little more
comfortable as dewpoints mix down into the low to mid 60s during
the afternoon.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

Anomalously strong mid-level ridging will be centered over the
Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday night while a mid-level weakens will
be to our southwest over the Western Gulf of Mexico. This pattern
will persist through midweek as the upper ridging remains strong
and becomes more elongated with time, extending from over much of
the Northeast southwest to over the Mid Mississippi River Valley
region on Thursday and Friday. There is disagreement among
available guidance as to whether the ridging persists or contracts
over the weekend, this will result in a low confidence forecast
for this latter portion of the forecast period.

Expect rain-free conditions under partly cloudy skies through
midweek with highs gradually climbing again through the low into
the mid 90s with lows generally in the lower 70s. Leaning toward
the weakening mid-level ridge solution, PoPs will increase across
the far southeast on Friday into Saturday, then expanding further
northwest with mainly isolated activity across much of the area.
As a result, continued to reduce high temperatures from guidance
into the low to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s during this time
frame.

05

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

An exceptionally strong 500 mb ridge will be in place over the
northeastern United States on Wednesday and Thursday. Our area
will be on the southern periphery of the ridge where easterly
deep-layer flow will be associated with a relatively dry and
moderated Atlantic airmass. Dewpoints in the 60s and afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Wednesday and
Thursday. The moderating effects of easterly flow will wane for
Friday and Saturday as flow weakens, leading to temperatures
trending upward into the mid 90s.

A tropical wave is expected to weaken as it moves westward towards
coastal Florida and Georgia on Friday and Saturday with only a
minimal increase in PWAT values over Alabama. Any showers and
storms on Saturday should be isolated and confined to the southern
part of the area. Slightly greater coverage of diurnal convection
may occur on Sunday as southeasterly flow contributes to moisture
advection.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

VFR conditions across central Alabama terminals through the next
24 hours. Ongoing showers just north of ANB were moving
northwest, and should be a non-factor at ANB (or elsewhere, for
that matter). All other convection has ended across central
Alabama, and just mid to high level clouds are expected through
the overnight hours. Computer models continue to strongly indicate
that easterly flow will bring in more stable air, and keep
afternoon convection to the west of central Alabama terminals
through the remainder of the period. Winds will pick up around
15Z, and become a bit gusty at times.

/61/
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be confined mainly
west of Interstate 65 today. 20ft winds will be from the
southeast at 6 to 9 mph, and RH values should range from 40 to 60
percent this afternoon. Rain-free conditions will return for
Tuesday through Friday as easterly winds bring drier air to the
region. This will lead to a downtrend in RH values into the 35 to
45 percent range each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gadsden     91  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    91  70  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  92  73  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  91  72  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      91  71  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      88  70  88  71 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  90  72  91  72 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        90  70  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION.../61/