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713
FXUS61 KBTV 170752
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The pleasant weekend we experienced will be a distant memory
soon enough. Temperatures warm sharply over the next couple of
days leading to the warmest temperatures seen in the area in
several years. Be sure to take appropriate precautions to avoid
heat stress Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 334 AM EDT Monday...After a weak warm front moves through
this morning bringing isolated to scattered showers mainly
towards the Canadian border, temperatures warm quickly under
strong warm air advection. South to southwest winds will
transport higher dewpoints and temperatures across the Northeast
with breezes gusting 20-30 mph. Highs will be in the 80s today,
a precursor of warmer temperatures to come as high pressure
builds over the region. Overnight lows tonight will continue to
warm as well given winds and rising dewpoints; generally ranging
from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Airmass modification continues Tuesday with nearly 600dm ridge
building northeastward. Heights will continue to rise while flow
remains southerly, but weakening aloft. Moisture transport will
support anomalous PWATs and humid surface conditions with heat
indices rising from the upper 80s to around 100 degrees. The
heat advisory was expanded to include our valley Adirondack
communities which haven`t seen these high heat values since
1988. A combination of recent cool conditions reducing
acclimatization and the extended nature of this heat wave will
result in major heat related impacts starting Tuesday. Cooling
stations have been set up in many communities. Given the terrain
acting as an elevated heat source despite rising heights aloft,
an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out over the
Adirondacks and Greens. Should these form and move over lower
valleys, strong winds will be a threat.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 334 AM EDT Monday...Hot weather likely peaks on Wednesday.
Probabilistic data has this as the most likely day for BTV to reach
100 F, and is coincidentally one of BTV`s five 100 degree days in
the record book reached in 1995. Values have actually come down from
about 45-50% closer to 30%. The NBM`s 50th percentile has bumped
down to 99 as well, but the MOS consensus of 98 is pretty
incredible, though. Looking at recent bias, MOS has been biased warm
the last several days. It will still be plenty warm with 90s across
the forecast area. As noted yesterday, forecasting subtle troughs is
going to be difficult, and the trend has been for one weak embedded
trough to come through earlier on Wednesday when the environment is
capped. So this makes precipitation look a bit less likely on
Wednesday. Still, given how hot it is, there could be a localized
shower or storm that bubbles up given how hot it is. Overall, there
will not be much relief on a hot, sordid day with heat indices
creeping up towards 105 in the broader valleys. This forecaster used
to live in the Atlanta area in high school, and at these readings,
our high school would not let teams practice outdoors. Shift outdoor
activities away from peak heating, stay hydrated, and be prepared to
take it slow. Look out for each other, and know the signs of heat
exhaustion and heat stroke to keep safe and well.

It will remain toasty Wednesday night. The latest forecast even has
perennial cold spot, Saranac Lake, struggling to fall below 70 with
68 presently in the forecast. The latest forecast continues to hint
at the ridge flattening on Thursday with 925 hPa temperatures
running about 1.5 C cooler compared to Tuesday and Wednesday, with a
trough and westerly flow moving into the region. There will be some
more cloud cover and increasing chances for rain, but there`s still
plenty of opportunity to warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s across
the forecast area. High humidity values remain, and so heat indices
in the mid 90s to lower 100s remain likely. We`ll closely monitor
convection, as 1500 J/kg of CAPE and 30 to 35 knots of shear could
promote some stronger thunderstorms.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 334 AM EDT Monday...Thursday night into Friday, somewhat lower
PWAT air shifts into the region and there will be some slight
cooling. 925hPa readings are more like 20 C, and that supports
mostly mid to upper 80s. It appears possible that the weak cold
front that passes through may transition into a stationary boundary
as the upper high continues to sag south. Depending on where it sets
up, we could be in for a soggy stretch over the weekend into early
next week. Temperatures will remain on the warmer side of normal,
and trend back to somewhat more humid conditions amidst increased
rain activity.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will likely prevail through
the period with best chances of MVFR with showers 10-16Z as a
weak front moves through the region. Upstream radar shows ample
returns, but decaying as they move into the ridge; thus can`t
rule out scattered showers for MSS/BTV/EFK/PBG/SLK. Thunderstorm
chances are less than 10%, so left those out for now. Otherwise,
winds will be south/southwest with gusts 15-25kts after 10Z. MSS
could see a brief window of LLWS with the glancing front that
tracks through 10-14Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night:  Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday:  Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
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Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the
middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat
of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18:
KBTV: 97/1994 Forecast 97
KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 93
KPBG: 94/1994 Forecast 94
KMSS: 97/1994 Forecast 95
KSLK: 94/1907 Forecast 91

June 19:
KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 97
KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 94
KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 94
KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 93
KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 91

June 20:
KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 96
KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 93
KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 94
KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 93
KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 89


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19:
KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 70

June 20:
KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 72
KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 67
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...Team BTV